有色金属季度报告：流动性好转叠加矿端偏紧，铜价有望进一步走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is bullish on copper (CU) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Fed restarted interest rate cuts, improving market liquidity, which is positive for copper prices. The global copper mine supply is tight, and the copper price center of gravity is expected to move up further. However, the terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be weaker than in previous years, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [134][135] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Industry Chain Market Trend Review - In the third quarter, copper prices fluctuated widely with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. In July, copper prices were affected by US tariff policies; in August, they were influenced by the weak US job market and expectations of Fed rate cuts; in September, they were boosted by expectations of Fed rate cuts, supply - side disturbances, and policy changes in domestic renewable resources [7][8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Part 3.2.1 Domestic Economy - China's economic operation faces challenges. In August, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. Export growth slowed due to global trade frictions, and import growth declined. Credit data in August was lower than expected but improved seasonally compared to July. Economic indicators such as industrial added - value, investment, and consumption continued to decline year - on - year. It is expected that the window for increasing pro - growth policies will open in the fourth quarter [10][13][14][15] 3.2.2 Fed Restarted Interest Rate Cuts - On September 18, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and is expected to cut rates by another 50bp this year. The Fed's economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations and relatively stable inflation and unemployment expectations [19][20] 3.2.3 US Job Market and Inflation - The US job market is weak. In August, non - farm payrolls increased less than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. Inflation is relatively stable, with CPI and PCE showing small increases, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is less than expected [27][34][36] 3.2.4 US Economic Resilience - Although the US job market is weak and consumer confidence has declined, retail sales, service PMI, and GDP performance have exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy still has resilience [40][41][43] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream Raw Materials - Tight Supply at the Mine End - From January to July 2025, global and Chinese copper mine production increased year - on - year, but many major copper mines had production cuts or disruptions this year. Copper mine imports in China increased from January to August, but port inventories remained low, and processing fees remained at a low level of - 40 US dollars/ton [51][52][59] 3.3.2 Mid - stream Smelting - Copper ore processing fees have been at a low level, causing losses for smelters using spot copper ore. However, the increase in sulfuric acid prices has helped smelters using long - term contracts to be close to the break - even point. China's refined copper production has remained high, but it is expected to decline in September due to policy changes in renewable resources. The import window for refined copper has opened, and imports are expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has become tight due to policy disturbances [62][69][74] 3.3.3 Downstream Copper Consumption - China's copper consumption accounts for about 50% of the global total. In August, the operating rate of downstream copper product enterprises recovered seasonally but with limited amplitude. In terms of terminal demand, power grid investment and new - energy vehicle production maintained high growth rates, while the real estate market continued to cool down, air - conditioner production growth slowed, and the growth rate of new installations in the photovoltaic and wind - power sectors declined significantly. Global copper inventories increased, and the spot premium and price spreads of copper showed certain trends in the third quarter [85][91][109] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - The macro - level Fed rate cuts are expected to improve liquidity, and the tight supply of copper mines will support copper prices. However, terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be weak, and supply and demand will remain in a weak pattern. The copper price center of gravity is expected to move up further [134][135]