Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views - Gold: Long - term holding. Despite PCE not supporting significant rate cuts, risks such as the US government shutdown and dovish statements from Fed officials provide support. The long - term supporting logic for gold remains unchanged with the start of the rate - cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - Silver: Long - term holding for long - term positions, light - position for short - term positions during holidays. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is also supported by the sentiment of other metals like copper. Global policy stimulus is evident, demand for silver is strong, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper: Long - term holding. The bullish factors from the Indonesian mine accident have been fully digested by the market, and the Fed's October rate - cut expectation is slightly weakened. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to its strategic importance in the China - US game and the shortage of copper concentrates [1][7]. - Zinc: Close short positions and prepare for empty or light positions during holidays. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][11]. - Lead: Price rebound is under pressure. Enterprises for primary and recycled lead are resuming production, while the expectation of the consumption peak season is still in doubt [1]. - Tin: Price rebound is under pressure. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production halts in the domestic supply side, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - Aluminum: Price is under pressure. The expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals and the unsmooth destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas contribute to this [1]. - Nickel: Price is under pressure. The impact of overseas disturbances on the Indonesian nickel mine has weakened, domestic refined nickel supply remains high, and downstream stainless - steel inventory is piling up again [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Price rebound is under pressure. Supply decreases month - on - month while downstream stocking boosts the operating rate, and there is a co - existence of cost support and high inventory [1]. - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish. There is uncertainty in polysilicon production in October, and the execution of industry production control and sales reduction needs attention. Strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks. Downstream pre - holiday restocking is basically over [1]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - Despite inflation meeting expectations, risk events such as the government shutdown provided support for the bulls, and gold and silver reached new highs [2]. Basic Logic - The US government is approaching a shutdown, and the political deadlock between the two parties remains unresolved. The White House has started formulating a "government shutdown plan". Although historical experience shows that the issue will eventually be resolved, the short - term impact on the market cannot be underestimated. - The uncertainty of US rate cuts has increased. The US core PCE price index in August met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. Inflation remains sticky, consumption is still strong, Trump's tariffs are back, and internal differences are widening. - Consumer confidence has significantly decreased. The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September dropped to a four - month low, and the inflation expectations were slightly lower than the initial and previous values. - In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring, and may continue its long - term bull market [3]. Strategy Recommendation - The market performance is strong, with short - term support at 840 for gold and around 10200 for silver. Long - term long positions can hold through holidays, and short - term long positions can hold with light positions. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Group 3: Copper Market Review - The price of Shanghai copper has pulled back from its high [6]. Industrial Logic - The supply of copper concentrates is tight. The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has intensified the shortage concern. Although China's copper ore imports increased in August, the imports of unforged copper decreased month - on - month, and the pressure on the smelting end has increased. In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased due to smelter maintenance. Global visible inventory is at a high level, high copper prices suppress demand, and the market trading is dull [6]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday and the weakening of the Fed's October rate - cut expectation, it is recommended that short - term speculative long positions take profit, prepare for empty or light positions during holidays, and long - term strategic long positions hold with option protection. Industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged. In the long - term, copper is still favored [7]. Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has oscillated weakly and broken through the key support at 21800 [10]. Industrial Logic - The supply of zinc concentrates is loose in 2025. Although the imports in August decreased month - on - month, they increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of SHFE zinc has increased significantly, while the LME zinc inventory continues to decline. The demand from downstream enterprises is weak, and the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has decreased [10]. Strategy Recommendation - As the macro and sector sentiment has cooled down, zinc has returned to a weak reality. It is recommended to close short positions and prepare for empty or light positions during holidays. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - The price of aluminum has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has shown a weak trend at a low level [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas rate cuts met expectations. Domestic production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased, and enterprises were actively stocking up before the long holiday. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect September arrivals, and the supply pressure has increased with the increase in operating capacity and the opening of the import window [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20500, 21300] [15]. Group 6: Nickel Market Review - The price of nickel has faced pressure and weakened, and stainless steel has shown a downward trend [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas rate cuts met expectations. The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel is in excess, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The domestic pure nickel inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. For stainless steel, the consumption peak season is uncertain, inventory has increased, and the supply has also increased [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000, 123000] [19]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has pulled back after reaching a high and closed slightly lower at the end of the session [21]. Industrial Logic - Supply has not significantly shrunk, with weekly production remaining above 20,000 tons and the operating rate close to 50%. Demand has received positive support from relevant policies, and downstream orders are scheduled until the end of the year. Total inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks, and smelter inventory is significantly lower than last year [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [72900, 74100] [23].
中辉有色观点-20250929
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-29 08:14