有色金属行业稳增长工作方案点评：有序推进项目建设，有色行业反内卷预期强化

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a "Stabilization Work Plan for the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)" aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [4]. - The plan emphasizes orderly project construction and rational layout of projects such as alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate to avoid redundant low-level construction [4]. - The report highlights the need for stricter control over new alumina production capacity due to falling prices and profits, suggesting that the threshold for new capacity may be raised [4]. - Copper smelting is facing significant losses with current spot treatment charges (TC) fluctuating around -40 USD/dry ton, necessitating capacity control in the industry [4]. - The lithium carbonate sector is expected to stabilize as supply-side optimization is anticipated, with recent regulatory changes enhancing government control over lithium supply [4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with profit elasticity in the relevant sectors, recommending specific companies for alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate [4]. Summary by Sections Alumina - The report notes that alumina prices have dropped below 3000 CNY/ton, with average industry profits falling to 103 CNY/ton, highlighting the need for stricter control over new capacity [4]. Copper Smelting - The report indicates that copper smelting is experiencing significant losses, with treatment charges dropping from over 90 USD/dry ton to -40 USD/dry ton, leading to calls for capacity control [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The report mentions that lithium prices have fallen to around 60,000 CNY/ton, below the cash costs for some companies, and anticipates a stabilization in the sector due to increased government regulation [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies such as China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Xinjiang Zhonghe in the alumina sector; Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper in copper smelting; and Zhongmin Resources, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium in lithium carbonate [4].