宏观2025年四季报：美联储降息重启与反内卷有望催生出一轮大宗商品的结构性牛市

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Review of the 2025 Macroeconomic and Asset Performance - In 2025, the world entered the Trump 2.0 era. The US initiated tariff trade wars, which impacted the global economy and its own capital market. China responded firmly, leading to a shift from passive to active in the Sino - US game. The first quarter saw a tech - stock market driven by DeepSeek, and the second quarter turned pessimism into optimism. In the second half of the year, a new wave of bull markets in stocks and commodities emerged, with abundant liquidity, anti - involution, and AI investment as driving forces. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and the global macro - logic of capital markets was about to shift [6]. - Global asset performance showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak commodities in 2025. Global stock markets rose, with Asia - Pacific stocks leading the gains. The US stock market reached new highs, and the A - share market reached a ten - year high. The US dollar index declined significantly, while non - US currencies strengthened. Among commodities, the CRB index rose slightly, with significant internal differentiation. Precious metals were strong, and some agricultural products like soybean oil performed well [7]. Outlook for the Fourth - Quarter Macroeconomic - Globally, with the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, the US economy is likely to recover, and the macro - trading logic of capital markets will shift from interest - rate cut trading to recovery trading. However, there are still uncertainties, and the impact of tariff disputes and Trump's intervention on the Fed's decision - making may lead to inflation and make the interest - rate cut path more variable [11]. - In China, the market has shown a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in 2025. The economy has the characteristic of "five weaknesses and one strength" (weak consumption, investment, credit, prices, and interest rates, but strong exports). In the fourth quarter, external demand will face headwinds due to the trade war, and domestic demand remains insufficient. The anti - involution logic has become an important macro - trading line [12]. Asset Allocation - Globally, the expectation of US economic recovery and the loose liquidity in the second half of the interest - rate cut cycle will boost investors' risk appetite. Equity assets and commodities will benefit, especially silver and copper. Gold can be appropriately increased during its correction [16]. - Domestically, under the macro - environment of weak recovery and global currency easing, the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise steadily. The stock and commodity futures markets are likely to attract funds, and a new structural commodity bull market may emerge [17]. Structural Bull Market in Commodities - In the fourth quarter, the Fed's interest - rate cut and anti - involution may trigger a new structural commodity bull market. Silver and copper will benefit from the shift to recovery trading after the interest - rate cut, and coking coal and new - energy varieties will benefit if the domestic economy weakens more than expected [21]. - The current macro - background is different from previous commodity bull markets. A comprehensive and universal bull market is less likely, and a "structurally differentiated" pattern is more probable [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review PEST Macro - environment Analysis - Politically, the world is moving from G2 to G0, showing a multi - polar and fragmented trend. Economically, the global economic pattern is being reshaped, with differences in growth and inflation across regions. Socially, there are various ideological and social issues around the world, while China is strengthening national and traditional cultural confidence. Technologically, the emergence of DeepSeek has changed the global technological landscape, leading to a shift in investment and capital flows [29]. Global and Domestic Asset Performance - Globally, in 2025, assets showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak commodities. Global stock markets rose, the US dollar index declined, and commodities had internal differentiation. Domestically, the futures market showed strong stocks, weak bonds, and differentiated commodities, with precious metals performing outstandingly [41][43]. Reasons for Market Movements - Asset prices reflect investors' expectations rather than just economic reality. The difference between macro - data and market sentiment is due to the gap between expectations and reality. The shift in expectations is related to events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the emergence of DeepSeek, and China's policy responses [55][63]. - The performance of US stocks and Chinese real estate has opposite wealth effects on their respective economies. The shift in expectations in the domestic market is due to factors such as technological breakthroughs, cultural confidence, and policy support, leading to a re - evaluation of Chinese assets and a change in investors' risk preferences [59][66]. Global and Domestic Economic Analysis Global Economic Situation - The global economic recovery is under pressure due to tariff wars. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is approaching the end, and different economies have different economic and policy situations. The global economic growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, and the US tariff has a negative impact on the global economy [73][74]. US Economic Situation - The US economy shows signs of stagflation. The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut, but Trump's intervention may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US economic recovery is expected in the fourth quarter, but there are risks such as insufficient recovery strength and inflation [90][115]. Chinese Economic Situation - China's economy has shown a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in 2025. The economy is facing internal and external challenges, with real - estate drag on the domestic side and trade - war impacts on the external side. The government has implemented various policies, and the anti - involution logic has emerged. The key to economic recovery lies in price changes, especially PPI [123][155]. - Fiscal policy has been proactive, but local finance is under pressure due to the decline of land finance. Monetary policy is moderately loose, with measures such as interest - rate and reserve - ratio cuts [160][172].