冠通期货原油2025年四季报：地缘局势扰动下的增产兑现情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical situation is still under control in local areas without significantly impacting crude oil exports. However, events like Israel's attack on Qatar, the deadlock in the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, and the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue may disrupt the crude oil market. Special attention should be paid to whether Europe and the United States will impose secondary sanctions on buyers of sensitive crude oil from Russia and Venezuela. If the geopolitical situation escalates and affects crude oil production or transportation, it will stimulate a rapid increase in crude oil prices [6][127]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ is committed to a gradual increase in production to maintain market share, planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. Currently, the actual production increase rate is lower than the planned target, but the pace has been accelerating recently. Due to strong power generation demand in the Middle East during the third quarter, the supply shock from OPEC+'s production increase has not yet arrived, and global crude oil inventories have not increased significantly. It should be noted that, except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, other OPEC+ countries have limited production increase capabilities, and OPEC+'s actual production increase in the fourth quarter will still be lower than the target rate. The actual production fulfillment of OPEC+ in the fourth quarter is a key point closely watched by the market. Additionally, among non-OPEC+ countries, Brazil and Guyana are bringing new production capacities into operation, gradually fulfilling their production increase plans and becoming the main drivers of the global crude oil production increase. The production of US shale oil is flexible, and the current oil price has not led to a decline in US crude oil production. It is expected that non-OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 [6][127]. - On the demand side, the peak season for crude oil travel demand ends in the fourth quarter, and Europe and the United States enter the autumn maintenance season in October. Future seasonal demand should focus on winter heating demand. Amid ongoing global trade wars and the transition to new energy sources, special attention should be paid to China-US trade negotiations. Poor non-farm payrolls in the US have raised market concerns, and the slow global economic recovery makes the outlook for crude oil demand pessimistic. The US resumed interest rate cuts in September, and the impact of these cuts on global crude oil demand should be monitored. Overall, the supply and demand of crude oil will weaken in the fourth quarter, with a high probability of inventory accumulation. It is expected that crude oil prices still have room to fall, and the Brent crude oil price is likely to drop below $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to whether oil-producing countries will implement production cuts in response to the continuous decline in oil prices [6][127]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In September, due to increased sanctions on Iran, considerations by Europe and the United States to further sanction Russia, the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian crude oil exports, and the continuous increase in freight rates, domestic crude oil contracts performed stronger relative to international crude oil prices [14]. - The current Brent basis is at a normal level [19]. - Recently, the Brent monthly spread has rebounded following the single-sided price, but the rebound strength is relatively weak [27]. - In late August 2025, the non-commercial net long position of WTI continued to decline and is currently at its lowest level since 2011. The net long position of ICE Brent funds is at a neutral level in the past decade. The Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly since April 2025, with a limited increase range, and is at a low level in recent years [35]. Crude Oil Production - Since 2020, OPEC+ has adhered to production cuts to raise oil prices and maintain fiscal balance. However, non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana have continuously increased their crude oil production, squeezing OPEC+'s market share through exports. In addition, some OPEC+ countries, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, have consistently exceeded their production quotas. Except for the period at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, crude oil prices have mostly been under downward pressure. Facing great fiscal pressure due to the slow global economic recovery, OPEC+ began to gradually relax production cuts in 2025 [40]. - On September 7, OPEC+ announced that, considering the stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals (reflected in low crude oil inventory levels), eight countries decided to adjust their production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. This adjustment will take effect in October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5. On September 8, countries such as Iraq submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply [45]. - According to the latest OPEC monthly report, OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day. In August 2025, its production increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant year-on-year increase of 1.296 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. In August, OPEC+'s crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day month-on-month, indicating an acceleration of production increase [45]. - According to the OPEC monthly report, the production of the eight additional production-cutting OPEC+ countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 1.22 million barrels per day compared to March, which is lower than the production increase target of 1.92 million barrels per day. This means that the supply shock from OPEC+'s production increase has not yet materialized. The main reasons are that the production increases in Iraq and Russia have fallen short of the targets, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing. Among OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million barrels per day and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with huge production increase potential, while other member countries have limited production increase space [48]. - Attention should also be paid to the changes in the crude oil production of Iran and Venezuela, which are subject to increased US sanctions. According to the OPEC monthly report, Iran's crude oil production in August was 3.218 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 81,000 barrels per day. Before the US sanctions, Iran's crude oil production was 3.8 million barrels per day. Since February 2025, the US has imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian crude oil-related tankers, traders, ports, and buyers. Iran's crude oil production has been continuously declining slightly since June 2025. Due to the large discount on Iranian crude oil, independent refineries in Shandong still preferentially purchase Iranian crude oil. Venezuela's crude oil production in August was 936,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 12,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year increase of 60,000 barrels per day. In late July, after the US Treasury Department issued a limited license to Chevron, Venezuela's crude oil and fuel exports in August reached their highest level since November 2024. However, in September, the US deployed warships in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela under the pretext of "fighting drug trafficking" and carried out military operations. Venezuela held military exercises and protests, and the relationship between the two countries became tense. According to the latest regulations issued by the US, only about half of the crude oil produced by Chevron's joint venture in Venezuela can be exported. Considering that the US imported about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela in 2024, accounting for 35% of Venezuela's total exports, Venezuela's crude oil exports may be restricted [52]. - The number of US oil rigs did not increase after Trump took office. From April to July 2025, due to the decline in oil prices, US shale oil producers reduced their capital expenditures, and the number of US oil rigs decreased significantly. Since August, it has rebounded slightly. As of September 19, 2025, the number of US oil rigs was 418, 70 less than the same period last year and 65 less than the end of 2024. US crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day in the week ending September 19. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 130,000 barrels per day from the record high set in early December last year. Since 2025, US crude oil production has remained around the historical high of 13.5 million barrels per day. Previously, the continuous decline in crude oil prices in April led to a decrease in US crude oil production, but recently, US crude oil production has increased slightly. The current oil price has not led to a decline in US crude oil production. The latest short-term energy outlook from the EIA predicts that US crude oil production will increase by 240,000 and 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2025 and 2026 respectively, reaching 13.44 million and 13.3 million barrels per day, which are slightly revised up by 40,000 barrels per day and 20,000 barrels per day respectively compared to the previous monthly outlook report [55]. - With the gradual commissioning of deep-water projects, Brazil and Guyana have become important drivers of crude oil production growth among non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries. On February 18, 2025, Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy announced that Brazil officially joined the "OPEC+" alliance. Brazil plans to invest $77 billion from 2025 to 2029, aiming to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, reaching an annual production of 3.9 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 500,000 barrels per day, and an additional increase of 220,000 barrels per day in 2026. In July 2025, Brazil's crude oil production had increased to 3.75 million barrels per day. In July 2025, Guyana's crude oil production increased to 670,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project in Guyana was put into operation ahead of schedule in early August, and it is expected that production will reach 900,000 barrels per day by the end of the year. According to the plan, the ExxonMobil consortium plans to deploy six FPSOs by 2027, targeting a production capacity of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027. By 2030, with the full commissioning of eight FPSOs, the total production capacity is expected to reach 1.7 million barrels per day [60]. Crude Oil Demand - China is the world's second-largest crude oil consumer and the largest crude oil importer, with about 70% of its crude oil imported. From January to August, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume was 488.072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, reaching a historical high for the same period. In August, China's crude oil imports increased by 4.85% month-on-month and 0.79% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 376.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [65]. - According to the weekly data from Longzhong Information, China's domestic crude oil processing volume has been increasing since August. As of the week ending September 19, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.8241 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.12% and a month-on-month increase of 0.26%. Currently, the domestic crude oil processing volume is only lower than that of the same period in 2023 [70]. - The US PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates in August were 2.9% and 3.1% respectively, both in line with expectations. On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024. The dot plot released along with the policy meeting minutes also showed that Fed officials expect to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points by the end of the year and 25 basis points each year in the next two years [73]. - The US Markit PMI data in September was still above the 50-point threshold, but both manufacturing and service sector activities slowed down. The preliminary US Markit manufacturing PMI in September was 52, the lowest in two months; the preliminary US Markit services PMI was 53.9, the lowest in three months; and the preliminary US Markit composite PMI was 53.6, the lowest in three months. The manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan were below the threshold, indicating weak global overall demand recovery. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, in line with market expectations. The non-farm payrolls in June were revised down by 27,000 to -13,000. The poor US non-farm payroll data has raised market concerns [82]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity. The year-on-year actual growth rate of China's industrial added value above designated size in August was 5.2% (all added value growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors), down 0.5 percentage points from July and 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.37% in August. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 6.2%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 5.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from July and 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of social retail sales and cumulative fixed asset investment both decreased compared to July [86]. - From mid-June to August 2025, during the peak season of downstream crude oil demand, the gasoline crack spreads in Europe and the US continued to rise, especially in August, which was significantly stronger than the same period last year. According to seasonal patterns, Americans usually travel during the period from Memorial Day (the last Monday in May) to Labor Day (the first Monday in September), which is the so-called travel peak season. Around October, US refineries will undergo autumn maintenance, and the refinery operating rate will decline from its peak [91]. - The diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US showed a similar trend to the gasoline crack spreads but had a larger year-on-year increase. Due to restrictions on importing Russian diesel and low ARA diesel inventories, in August, Europe's diesel imports from the US and the Middle East increased by 28% year-on-year, significantly driving up the diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US [95]. September Institutional Monthly Report Expectations - Amid slow global economic growth, increasing trade frictions, and energy transition, EIA, IEA, and OPEC have continuously lowered their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth. The three major crude oil research institutions have generally lowered the global crude oil demand growth forecast by about 300,000 barrels per day compared to the initial forecast at the beginning of the year. In the latest September monthly report, the EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. In addition, the EIA raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but it expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. OPEC maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [99]. US Crude Oil Data - As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil imports increased by 803,000 barrels per day to 6.495 million barrels per day, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years; US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1