冠通期货PVC2025年四季报：新增产能投产与反内卷博弈

Report Title - PVC 2025 Q4 Report: New Capacity Launch vs. Anti-Involution Game [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Cost side: Calcium carbide prices rose due to coal price increases and orderly power consumption, but with overall oversupply, the room for further price increases to drive up PVC prices is limited. Under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the shutdown of PVC plants. PVC operating rates have reached relatively high levels for the same period in history. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but the new capacity of 1.4 million tons/year put into operation in August - September will be fully released in Q4, and the 300,000 tons/year capacity of Jiahua Energy may be put into operation in Q4, so it is expected that autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity. The six - department joint plan for stable growth in the building materials industry has not yet had actual policies implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old plants to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect future market trends. From January to August 2025, the real estate market was still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was at the lowest level for the same period in history, and real estate improvement still requires time. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still below the boom - bust line. PVC downstream operating rates have not significantly improved and are at a low level since March. Downstream products are cautious about restocking. Q4 is the peak construction season for real estate projects, and domestic consumption may increase seasonally, so PVC demand may improve slightly. The export growth rate of PVC floor coverings has slowed significantly. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics' October quotation was stable. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50/ton for the Chinese mainland. China's PVC export outlook is weakening in Q4. Currently, PVC social inventory is rising, with high pressure, and warehouse receipts are at a historical high, and the PVC basis is low, with supply still in surplus. It is expected that PVC will mainly seek a bottom through oscillations, and after continuous price declines, its valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. Of course, favorable real estate and anti - involution policies and improved external demand will stimulate PVC to rise periodically, especially in October when major policies may be introduced. For arbitrage, a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [6][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Price Trends - Indian PVC spot prices have risen slightly since April 2025, and China's PVC spot export profits have increased slightly. After the main contract shifted to the 2601 contract, the spot price in East China again became deeply discounted. Recently, the 01 basis has rebounded slightly but is still at a relatively low level for the same period in recent years. PVC2601's top 20 net positions have always been in a short position. PVC warehouse receipts decreased from the historical high to 0 at the beginning of 2025 but then continued to rise and reached a new historical high due to weak spot demand and the futures still at a premium to the spot [15][20][25]. PVC Upstream - Affected by orderly power consumption, the calcium carbide operating rate dropped to 64% after March, at a low level. With the increase in the cost of semi - coke, calcium carbide prices rebounded continuously from a low level in September, with a rise of 210 yuan/ton in the northwest region but still about 200 yuan/ton lower than the end of last year. Semi - coke prices also increased significantly in September. Calcium carbide profits were stable but still in a loss state, and the semi - coke loss margin was stable, with the operating load rising to a neutral level of 56% [33]. PVC Profits - The continuous decline in PVC spot prices has led to losses in both the calcium carbide and ethylene methods of PVC production. However, under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the concentrated shutdown of PVC plants [40]. PVC Output and Operating Rates - In August 2025, PVC output increased by 3.43% month - on - month to 2.0733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.09%. From January to August 2025, cumulative PVC output was 16.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04%, at the highest level for the same period in recent years. The PVC maintenance loss in August decreased by 3.22% month - on - month to 577,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PVC maintenance loss was 4.2349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period in recent years. In August 2025, the PVC operating rate was 78.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.13 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.12 percentage points, at a relatively high level for the same period in history. Supported by the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the PVC operating rate has remained at a relatively high level for the same period in history in the past three months. As of the week of September 26, affected by plants such as Heilongjiang Haohua and Gansu Jinchuan, the PVC operating rate increased by 2.01 percentage points month - on - month to 78.97%, rising to a relatively high level for the same period in recent years [48][51]. PVC New Capacity - Although the new capacity of the calcium carbide method has slowed down due to poor profits and environmental protection policies, there were still multiple sets of new ethylene - based PVC capacity put into operation in 2025, especially in August - September, and most are located in East China. Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year capacity was put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year capacity is expected to achieve stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year capacity was put into operation in early September and is currently close to full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons/year capacity is in the trial - run stage in September. Attention should also be paid to the commissioning progress of Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year capacity [54]. PVC Maintenance - In addition to long - term shutdowns of plants such as Taishan Yanhua and Shandong Dongyue, a few newly added plants in 2025, such as Suzhou Huasu and Salt Lake Magnesium, are still under maintenance. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but it is expected that with the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity [56]. PVC Imports and Exports - In August 2025, PVC imports were at the lowest level for the same period in history, and exports decreased month - on - month due to concerns about Indian anti - dumping duties but still remained at a relatively high level. The proportion of China's exports to India dropped to 39.22%. The net export volume of PVC in August decreased to 271,700 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 11.24% and a year - on - year increase of 49.86%, still at the highest level for the same period in recent years. In September, there was still a small profit in PVC exports, but Indian anti - dumping duties and the BIS certification policy will suppress China's PVC exports in Q4. China's PVC production capacity accounts for 45% of the global total. While the domestic real estate market is in adjustment, developing countries such as India and Vietnam have strong demand for PVC but insufficient domestic production capacity. Although India's anti - dumping policy is unfavorable for China's exports to India, China can increase exports to other countries like Vietnam, but this will take time, and it is expected that this shift cannot fully fill the Indian gap in Q4 [63][73]. Real Estate Data - From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment widened by 0.9 percentage points to - 12.9% compared to January - July. The year - on - year decline in national land purchase fees widened by 1.3 percentage points to - 10.2%. The year - on - year decline in national housing construction area widened by 0.1 percentage point to - 9.3%. From January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. As of the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 9.49% week - on - week but was at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August, the housing completion area was 27.694 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [79][84][88]. PVC Floor Covering Exports - In August, the export volume of PVC floor coverings decreased by 1.50% month - on - month to 347,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.49%, at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor coverings was 2.795 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. Affected by the global trade war, especially the Sino - US trade war, China's PVC floor covering exports have performed poorly [92]. PVC Downstream Operating Rates - Despite the government's introduction of multiple real estate stimulus policies, the performance of the PVC downstream in 2025 has been cautious, and the recovery of operating rates has been slow. As of the week of September 26, the PVC downstream operating rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points month - on - month to 47.76%, a year - on - year increase of 2.99 percentage points. The policies have not yet been transmitted to the PVC demand side, and the demand for downstream PVC pipes and profiles is at a low level for the same period in history [97].