Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views - Supply side: High asphalt losses, raw material shortages, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected to keep the asphalt operating rate low in Q4. With the widening discount of diluted asphalt, attention should be paid to the potential increase in Venezuelan heavy oil flowing to China. Import growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be very limited. [4][78] - Demand side: Asphalt demand is mainly concentrated in road infrastructure and real estate, with road infrastructure accounting for 70%. As 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", many road construction projects are in the delivery phase, which will drive asphalt demand. However, due to financial constraints on local governments and the lack of improvement in the real estate market, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly in Q4 and will still lag behind previous years. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the capital side and the pace of forming asphalt physical volume. Low asphalt inventory strongly supports asphalt futures prices. [4][78] - Overall trend: With weak supply and demand, asphalt is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations in Q4, with its overall center of gravity moving down. The high asphalt basis suggests that northern spot traders can short the basis. Also, the 01 - 06 spread of asphalt is expected to weaken seasonally, so it is recommended to short the 01 - 06 spread. [4][78] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price走势 - The asphalt/crude oil ratio increased in the first three quarters of 2025. Due to geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Venezuela, the ratio is expected to remain high in Q4. [9] - After the implementation of the diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy, refineries suffered heavy losses in processing diluted asphalt, leading to a significant reduction in imports and low port inventories. [11] - In the South China region, the increase in refinery operating rates has given asphalt spot prices a significant advantage. [20] - Since 2025, the asphalt basis first declined and then rebounded to a relatively high level. Recently, it has dropped to a slightly high - neutral position. [29] 2. Asphalt Production and Consumption - In August 2025, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.74%, and the Shandong region's operating rate decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 33.74%, both at relatively low levels. [34] - In August 2025, asphalt production increased by 0.75% month - on - month to 2.5267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production increased by 9.28% year - on - year to 18.8156 million tons. [39] - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 2.833 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 21.21%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption increased by 4.98% year - on - year to 18.0629 million tons. As of September 26, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 0.32% week - on - week to 312,600 tons. [44] - As of September 26, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 5.7 percentage points to 40.1%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating rate was mostly low, and the profit of Shandong asphalt spot was significantly in the red, with a loss of over 600 yuan/ton. [47] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative net import of asphalt was 1.9591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. In August, the net import reached the lowest level in recent years. [49] 3. Asphalt Downstream - Asphalt downstream demand is mainly in road construction and maintenance (about 70%), building waterproofing (about 20%), and ship fuel and coking (about 10%). [52] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 3.3%, continuing to decline. The cumulative sales volume of pavers was 1,120 units, a year - on - year increase of 36.58%. [57] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset infrastructure investment was 5.42%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity dropped from 3.2% in January - July 2025 to 2.0% in January - August 2025. [59] - From January to July 2025, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. The issuance progress of new local bonds is higher than that in 2024 but lower than that in 2023. It is expected that the special bonds will increase significantly from September to October. [62] - In Q3, the downstream main - road modified asphalt strengthened seasonally but not as much as in previous years. As of September 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries increased, but they were still at relatively low levels compared to previous years. [66] 4. Asphalt Inventory - As of September 26, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 14.7%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. [71] - As of September 26, the asphalt social inventory decreased by 3.50% week - on - week to 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.14%. The factory inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week to 698,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.74%. The overall inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to previous years. [76]
沥青2025年四季报：成本主导，供需双弱
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-29 08:26