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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro Aspect: In Q3, the market expected a 50bp Fed rate cut, and the US dollar index declined. After the rate cut, the copper price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped. The 232 - investigation copper tariff took effect on August 1st, ending the US copper siphon effect. In China, anti - involution measures boosted the commodity market, and a series of policies accelerated the capacity clearance in the upstream industrial sector [6]. - Supply Aspect: Since February 2025, the copper smelter processing fees TC/RC have been negative and weakening. According to Mysteel, the planned production in September was 1.1476 million tons, and the expected production in October is 1.1235 million tons, a new low since April. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October, and the shortage of scrap copper supply will also lead to significant production cuts [6]. - Demand Aspect: Entering the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream copper product production has improved, and copper demand remains resilient. However, due to high prices, the downstream's willingness to purchase has weakened, and the Shanghai copper inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the inventory will first decrease and then increase in Q4 [6]. - Investment Strategy: The Fed rate cut and China's incremental policies boost the copper market sentiment. The supply is tight, while the demand from power grids, new energy, etc. provides rigid support. It is expected that the copper price will rise in fluctuations in Q4, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production of mines and the Fed rate - cut process [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Economic Environment - Domestic Economic Data: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [12][13]. - Stable Growth Work Plan: From 2025 - 2026, the non - ferrous metal industry aims for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals. It involves resource exploration, product innovation, project construction, consumption upgrade, and stabilizing foreign trade [16]. - Fed Rate Cut: On September 18th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected that there may be another 50bp of rate cuts this year [20]. Tariff Policy - The US imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and derivatives with high copper content starting from August 1st, which affected the global copper market and inventory distribution [22]. Supply - Global Supply: From January - July 2025, global copper mine production increased by about 3.4%, and refined copper production increased by about 3.9%. There was an apparent surplus of about 101,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [27]. - Overseas Supply: In July, Peru's copper production decreased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's increased by 0.3%. The mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine and the tunnel collapse at Chile's Codelco will reduce copper production [32]. - Copper Concentrate Supply: In August 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.7593 million tons. Although the cumulative imports from January - August increased by 8.07% year - on - year, overseas accidents and declining ore grades keep the supply tight [36]. - Copper Smelting: Since February 2025, TC/RC has been negative. The planned production in September and expected production in October decreased. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October [42]. - Refined Copper Supply: In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month. It is expected that production will continue to decrease in October due to maintenance and scrap copper shortages [51]. - Scrap Copper Supply: In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. Affected by the US copper tariff, imports from the US decreased significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in Q4 [53]. Demand - Copper Products: In September 2025, the expected output of refined copper rods was 1.0389 million tons, a 4.08% month - on - month increase. The demand for copper foil is expected to increase during the peak season, and the demand for copper tubes from home appliances will also be boosted [56]. - Power Grid and Power Source Investment: From January - August 2025, the power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 14%. The power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with a 0.5% growth. It is expected that the national power grid investment will reach 660 - 670 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10% growth [62]. - Real Estate: From January - August, the construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate all decreased year - on - year. The government's policies are expected to stabilize the market, but currently, it still drags down copper demand [68]. - New Energy Vehicles: In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.171 million, a 18.3% year - on - year increase. From January - August, the cumulative sales were 8.088 million, a 30.1% increase. The production increase in Q4 will drive copper demand [72]. - Home Appliances: Affected by the US tariff and pre - placed policies, the home appliance demand may lack momentum in the second half of the year, but there will still be a month - on - month increase in the peak season [78]. Inventory - Global Exchanges: Before July, due to the US copper tariff, the copper inventory in the US increased while that in other regions decreased. After the tariff took effect, the COMEX - LME premium returned to normal, and the LME inventory rebounded [85]. - Domestic Exchanges: The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the tariff took effect. Recently, due to high prices, the inventory has accumulated but decreased slightly due to holiday replenishment. It is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4. The bonded - area inventory has been fluctuating slightly [90]. - Domestic Social Inventory: As of September 26th, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 131,800 tons, similar to the SHFE inventory trend, and is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4 [94].