中辉期货热卷早报-20250929

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil): Cautiously bearish [1][3][4][5] - Iron Ore: Hold for the time being [1][6][7][8] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1][9][11][12] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1][13][15][16] - Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish [1][17][18][19] 2. Report's Core Views - Rebar: Although there are positive changes in supply and demand, the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and it will maintain a range - bound operation [1][4][5] - Hot Rolled Coil: Supply and demand are relatively stable with little contradiction, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply - demand side, maintaining a range - bound operation [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: The iron - making water output increases, and the restocking of steel mills and ports is nearly finished. The fundamentals driving force is weakening, and it is recommended to hold for the time being [1][6][7][8] - Coke: It has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will follow coking coal in range - bound operation [1][9][11][12] - Coking Coal: Domestic production is recovering, and the supply shortage has improved. There is little short - term supply - demand contradiction, and it will operate within a range [1][13][15][16] - Manganese Silicon: The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited. The market may fluctuate after the rapid release of the previous decline sentiment [1][17][18][19] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the price increase. The market may fluctuate after the rapid release of the previous decline sentiment [1][17][18][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar futures prices (01, 05) declined, while the 10 - contract rose slightly; hot - rolled coil futures prices all declined. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in most regions decreased [2] - Supply and Demand: Rebar's apparent demand improved month - on - month, production remained flat, and inventory continued to decrease; hot - rolled coil's apparent demand changed little, production declined slightly, and inventory increased slightly [4] Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore futures prices (01, 05, 09) all declined. Spot prices of some iron ore varieties remained unchanged, and some decreased [6] - Supply and Demand: The iron - making water output increased again, and the inventory of steel mills and ports both increased. The restocking is nearly finished, and the overseas ore shipment is expected to decline [7] Coke - Price Information: Coke futures prices (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts) all declined. Spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged [10] - Supply and Demand: Coke production decreased slightly month - on - month, but inventory increased. The iron - making water output continued to rise, and the raw material demand remained high [11] Coking Coal - Price Information: Coking coal futures prices (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts) all declined. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged [14] - Supply and Demand: Domestic coking coal production continued to recover, and the Mongolian coal import volume was high. The iron - making water output increased slightly, and the total inventory continued to increase [15] Ferroalloys - Price Information: Futures prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon all declined. Spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in various regions remained unchanged [17] - Supply and Demand: The supply of manganese silicon in the production area decreased slightly, and the subsequent inventory reduction may face difficulties; the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly [18]