钢铁周报：反内卷或是未来2年钢铁交易的主基调-20250929

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The main theme for steel trading in the next two years is expected to be "anti-involution" [1]. - The report highlights the fluctuations in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a complex market environment [3][6]. Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,408, with a weekly change of -1.1% and a year-to-date change of 14.5% [3]. - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) is priced at 3,230 CNY/ton, showing a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 5.3% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,340 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 2.3% [3]. Inventory Summary - The total inventory of five major steel products is 1,088 million tons, with a weekly change of -1.1% and a year-to-date change of 43.5% [6]. - The port inventory of iron ore is at 13,997 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.4% and a year-to-date increase of 1.1% [6]. Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,100 million tons [9]. - The average daily pig iron output is expected to reach approximately 250 million tons [9]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand measured in ten thousand tons [15].