瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a +0.93% increase at the close. The trading volume increased compared to the previous period, the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. Overseas miners still have a strong willingness to support prices, and the supply trend of domestic mining areas is expected to gradually become clear. Lithium ore may continue to have firm quotes. In terms of supply, raw materials provide a certain degree of cost support for lithium carbonate prices. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and positive policy guidance, supply is expected to show an increasing trend. In terms of imports and exports, the volume of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile may decrease slightly after arrival at the port, so overall, the domestic lithium carbonate supply may increase slightly. In terms of demand, driven by the traditional consumption season, downstream orders and production schedules have been boosted, and the industry maintains a high growth trend. In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 46.02%, a - 1.3294% decrease compared to the previous period. The options market has an advantage in call open interest, and the sentiment in the options market is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly increasing. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double - lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 73,920 yuan/ton, a +1040 yuan increase; the net position of the top 20 was - 162,974 lots, a +11,116 lots increase; the open interest of the main contract was 251,749 lots, a +3109 lots increase; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 40,329 lots, a +20 lots increase [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan decrease; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan decrease; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a - 1090 yuan decrease [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 876 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,285 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 45,880 tons, a +1280 tons increase; the monthly import volume was 21,846.92 tons, a +8001.60 tons increase; the monthly export volume was 368.91 tons, a +2.56 tons increase; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 46%, a - 2% decrease [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly production of power batteries was 139,600 MWh, a +5800 MWh increase; the price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 61,000 yuan/ton, a +2000 yuan increase; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, a +1500 yuan increase; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 123,000 yuan/ton, a +2500 yuan increase; the price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 131,500 yuan/ton, a +3000 yuan increase; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, a +3% increase; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 57%, a +6% increase; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,391,000 vehicles, a +148,000 vehicles increase; the monthly sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a +133,000 vehicles increase; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 45.53%, a +0.54% increase; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 9,620,000 vehicles, a +2,583,000 vehicles increase; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 224,000 vehicles, a - 10,000 vehicles decrease; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1,532,000 vehicles, a +714,000 vehicles increase [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 27.32%, a - 0.26% decrease; the 40 - day average volatility was 41.46%, a +0.12% increase; the total call open interest was 226,551 contracts, a +4802 contracts increase; the total put open interest was 104,264 contracts, a - 738 contracts decrease; the put - call ratio of total open interest was 46.02%, a - 1.3294% decrease; the at - the - money implied volatility was 0.46%, a +0.0077% increase [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Four departments including the Ministry of Commerce decided to implement export license management for pure - electric passenger vehicles. Some enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry may over - inflate pre - sale orders, and third - party intervention and real - time delivery data disclosure are needed. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans to stabilize the growth of the automotive industry, optimize preferential measures for vehicle purchase tax and vehicle and vessel tax for new energy vehicles, and establish an access management system for assisted and autonomous driving. Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing the Growth of the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026, and strengthening resource surveys and explorations of copper, aluminum, lithium, etc. [2]