Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 08:43Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the Shanghai lead futures market will maintain a high - level oscillating pattern next week. Supply from primary and secondary lead production is unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. Although overall demand is average, it won't decline sharply due to the "Golden September and Silver October" season and emerging energy - storage demand. The decline in inventory also provides a certain bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,855 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. The 11 - 12 - month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 15 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 79,662 lots, down 12,005 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,024 lots, down 1,717 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 34,764 tons, down 820 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,209 tons, down 8,123 tons; the LME lead inventory is 219,425 tons, down 125 tons [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,800 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 55 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 41.63 dollars/ton, down 4.83 dollars [2]. 3.2. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 million tons, unchanged. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons [2]. - The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. 3.3. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,067.86 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2]. 3.4. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 49.68 million units, up 1.925 million units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,159.56 points, down 18.37 points [2]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.333 million vehicles, up 157,000 vehicles [2]. 3.5. Industry News - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in August was 2.9%, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations [2]. - Some primary lead smelting enterprises are in the centralized maintenance stage, and the raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with the processing fee of lead concentrate continuing to decline [2]. - Secondary lead production is restricted by environmental inspections and low waste - battery recycling efficiency, but some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production in early October [2]. 3.6. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Overall lead supply shows a stable and rising trend. Primary lead production is restricted by maintenance and raw - material shortages, and secondary lead production is restricted by environmental factors and waste - battery supply, but some enterprises may resume production in early October [2]. - Demand: The demand for lead - acid batteries in the automotive starting - battery segment is stable. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, but downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. The demand for energy storage in emerging fields is improving, but overall demand has not seen a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [2].