Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 08:42Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals in China are low, reducing supply pressure, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations lack substantial progress, weakening long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. With frequent trade policy news, market trading is cautious, and volatility increases, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, this year's festival stocking is lower than previous years, and overall consumption support is limited. The domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still relatively loose, constraining short - term prices. But for rapeseed oil itself, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases result in low supply - side pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The price is supported before there is substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, but volatility increases due to frequent policy changes in Argentina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 10,093 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2,416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 614.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.3 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5,285 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 147 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 84 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 331,056 lots, down 23,209 lots; the main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 359,652 lots, down 11,448 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 29,336 lots, down 7,113 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 58,070 lots, up 4,493 lots. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts are 8,057 sheets; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are 9,245 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,240 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10,305 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,541.24 yuan/ton, down 3.59 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,390 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: The rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1,780 yuan/ton; the rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1,010 yuan/ton; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in a certain area is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Imports and processing: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 5.33%, down 7.73 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6.85 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month feed production is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; the current - month edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.33%, up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.32%, up 1.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, up 0.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.83%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.5%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.12%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.31%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 26, ICE rapeseed futures reversed mid - week gains. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 614.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the January rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 627.7 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - U.S. soybeans are in the harvest season, and the expected high yield continues to constrain soybean prices. China has not ordered any U.S. soybeans for the current year, and U.S. soybean export pressure remains. Argentina has re - imposed export tariffs, normalizing international market competition. The market focuses on the USDA quarterly inventory report [2]. - The Canadian rapeseed crop yield is estimated at 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is ongoing, which will put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices [2]. - Driven by bilateral trade agreements and the EU's second postponement of the zero - deforestation law, Indonesian palm oil exports are boosted [2].