Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 08:42Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is still affected by fundamental sentiment and is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week. It is recommended to place long orders on dips [2]. - The new energy consumption national standard for polysilicon may lead to industry consolidation in the long - term, but in the short - term, market concerns about the progress of capacity elimination and the uncertainty of the "anti - involution" policy are major factors causing market fluctuations. New capacity addition is difficult in the short - term [2]. - On the demand side, silicon wafer prices are flat, some enterprises raise prices, downstream silicon wafer enterprises have high inventories, new order procurement slows down, and domestic PV installation has declined for two consecutive months, resulting in weak terminal demand. However, the growing demand for N - type materials may partially offset the surplus of P - type materials and support prices to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract is 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the main position is 93,768 lots, down 7,718 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,435 yuan, down 120 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,670 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis is 1,085 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons, and the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.89 US dollars/kg, unchanged, and the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 149,022,660 units, up 38,589,980 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,290 units, up 6,914,640 units, and the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars [2]. Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese PV enterprise, announced to supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, indicating continuous breakthroughs of Chinese PV enterprises in the Latin American market with the "global production + local service" strategy [2]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises, calling for leading the fight against "involution - style" competition. A draft for soliciting opinions on the new national standard for energy consumption of polysilicon has been released [2].