中辉能化观点-20250929

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, but there is a large downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their trends are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal demand [1][2][4] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: On September 26, WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 0.93%, and SC rose 0.04%. The international oil price rose and then fell last Friday [5] - Basic Logic: In mid - to - late September, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, causing oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting. In the medium - to - long term, supply surplus may push oil prices down to around $60 [6] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by pipeline attacks and export resumptions; demand in India decreased in August; US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending September 19 [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [490 - 500] for SC [8] LPG - Market Review: On September 26, the PG main contract closed at 4258 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [11] - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price weakened, downstream chemical demand increased, but supply was abundant due to high refinery operating rates and high warehouse receipts, suppressing LPG prices [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [13] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10) [16] - Basic Logic: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is supported by the peak season of shed films. Pay attention to downstream restocking [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [18] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (-5) [21] - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, supply pressure may ease, and downstream demand is entering the peak season. Pay attention to downstream restocking [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [23] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16) [26] - Basic Logic: Supply is stronger than demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro sentiment support the bottom. Pay attention to restocking and inventory reduction [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [28] PX - Market Review: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6676 (-21) yuan/ton [31] - Basic Logic: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. PX inventory is high, and the cost - end oil price is under pressure [31] - Strategy Recommendation: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6630 - 6720] for PX511 [32] PTA - Market Review: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4590 (+5) yuan/ton [34] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance, and demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand is in tight balance, expected to be loose in Q4 [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options. Focus on the range of [4630 - 4690] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On September 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4311 (+6) yuan/ton [38] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices slightly reduced load, overseas devices changed little. Terminal consumption improved short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. Inventory is low, supporting prices [38] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4255] for EG01 [39] Methanol - Market Review: On September 26, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2293 (-1) yuan/ton [42] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure remains large, but demand has improved, and social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [43] - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [43] Urea - Market Review: On September 26, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1600 (-10) yuan/ton [47] - Basic Logic: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [2]