棉花策略季报：2025 年四季度：棉花：先抑后扬

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]