钢材期货周度报告：旺季需求不振，建议轻仓过节-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is facing weak demand during the peak season, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. If there are no significant positive policies, steel prices may continue to operate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. Market demand increased at the beginning of the week due to positive expectations and coke price hike expectations, but terminal demand was weak in the second half of the week. As the holiday approached, fear of high prices increased, and merchants mainly focused on reducing inventory. As of September 26, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On September 22, at the press conference, the central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose; the financial regulatory chief said that "whitelist" project loans exceed 7 trillion yuan; the CSRC chairman mentioned that as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan"; the SAFE chief said that overseas institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan of domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits and loans at the end of July [5]. - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's relevant measures on September 25, which involve various product categories including steel [6]. - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [6]. - On September 27, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that measures would be taken to expand market consumption in the auto industry and improve the management system [6]. - In mid - September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.41 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period, with the increase narrowing [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Sunday this week was 105,500 tons, lower than last week's 106,500 tons. In the short term, as the National Day holiday approaches, pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and there is pressure for rebar to accumulate inventory during the peak season after the holiday [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - After the pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the market is worried about weak demand after the holiday and faces inventory reduction pressure. Without major positive policies, steel prices may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to risk control during the long holiday [26]. - From the disk perspective, the black series generally declined. The main contract of coking coal fell nearly 4%, coke fell 2.73%, rebar and iron ore fell more than 1%, and hot - rolled coil fell the least at 0.87%. Overall, positions were reduced. The main rebar 01 contract closed at 3,099, down 40 points, with a position of 1.963 million lots, a reduction of 12,500 lots [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].