养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Soybean Oil: This week, the main futures price of soybean oil declined. The exhaustion of Argentina's $7 billion agricultural product export tax - free quota for oilseeds and meal, high inventory of oils, and the expected increase in South American soybean imports contributed to this. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it's advisable to wait and see for the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially offset the supply. There is an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, the de - stocking process will continue. It's recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9800 - 9810 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [2]. - Palm Oil: From September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, and exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9%. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio to B45 before B50. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [3]. - Soybean No.2 and Soybean Meal: The main futures price of soybean oil declined this week. The supply is sufficient, and the price of soybean meal may strengthen in wide - range fluctuations. For an aggressive strategy, consider going long with a light position; for a conservative one, wait and see. The support for the soybean No.2 main contract is 3500 - 3540 yuan/ton, and the resistance is 3730 - 3750 yuan/ton. For the soybean meal main contract, the support is 2900 - 2910 yuan/ton, and the resistance is 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Canadian rapeseed production is almost set with an expected increase. Domestic rapeseed meal may de - stock if Canadian rapeseed imports are reduced. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support at 2320 - 2330 and resistance at 2552 - 2572 [3][5]. - Soybean No.1: The price of soybean No.1 first declined and then rose. The early - maturing soybeans in Northeast China have lower protein content, and there is a bumper harvest expected. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell, the price is expected to be firm in the short term, but the upside is limited. It's advisable to wait and see. The resistance for the 11 - contract is 3980 - 4000 yuan/ton, and the support is 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton [4]. - Peanuts: The new - season peanut planting area has increased, but the price has factored in the increase expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support for the 11 - contract is 7500 - 7510, and the resistance is 8020 - 8162 [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: This week, the futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The external market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is in a game between low channel inventory and new - season listing rhythm. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The support for the corn 11 - contract is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance is 2240 - 2250. For the corn starch 11 - contract, the support is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance is 2580 - 2590 [6]. - Pigs: The spot price of pigs has been weak. The industry is under de - capacity pressure. The futures price is expected to rebound in a range. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the 11 - contract is 13000 - 13500 points [7]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs has been weak. The egg production capacity is high, and the consumption is in the off - season. It's recommended for aggressive investors to go long on the 11 - or 12 - contract at low prices, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between 11 and 1 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Market Analysis: Different products in the feed,养殖, and油脂 sectors have different market logics and price trends. For example, soybean No.1 is expected to run firmly, while soybean No.2 will fluctuate widely. The report provides support and resistance levels and corresponding strategies for each product [11]. - Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies: The report presents the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various products in different sectors, including油料,油脂, protein, energy and by - products, and养殖 [12][13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - Oilseeds and Oils: - Daily Data: The report shows the import cost data of oilseeds and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero for different soybean and rapeseed shipment periods [13][14]. - Weekly Data: The weekly data of oilseeds and oils include inventory and开机率. For example, the soybean (port) inventory is 671.85 (7.50), and the开机率 of the soybean oil industry is 61.00% (- 1.00%) [15]. - Feed: The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory,开机率, and inventory of starch enterprises [15]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs): The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of pigs and eggs, such as the closing price of the pig main contract, the spot price of pigs, and the spot price of eggs [17][18][19]. - Oilseeds and Oils: - Palm Oil: Charts show Malaysia's palm oil production, export, inventory, import profit, and related price differences [27][26][30]. - Soybean Oil: The report presents charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill开机率, inventory, and trading volume [33][34][36]. - Peanuts: Charts include the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, crushing profit,开工率, inventory, and import volume [38][31][33]. - Feed End: - Corn: The report provides charts of corn's spot price, closing price, basis, price differences, inventory, import volume, consumption, processing profit, and price differences with wheat [42][43][45]. - Corn Starch: Charts show the spot price, closing price, basis, price differences,开机率, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][51][53]. - Rapeseed: The report includes charts of rapeseed meal's spot price, import rapeseed oil's spot price, basis, inventory, and related data [55][56][59]. - Soybean Meal: Charts show the inventory, crushing volume, and related data of rapeseed and soybean meal [61][64]. Fourth Part: Feed, Breeding, and Oil Options Situation The report includes charts of the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [65][69][70]. Fifth Part: Feed, Breeding, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situations of various products, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [75][76][77].