Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - fiber industry is rated as "oscillating" [6] Core Viewpoints - The terminal textile and clothing market lacks highlights, but the downstream polyester yarn segment has increased its overall inventory level due to peak - season expectations. The high growth rate of exports has compensated for the lack of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the industry operating at a high capacity, there is limited room for further supply growth. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of short - fiber is limited. The absolute price is expected to mainly follow the fluctuations of polyester raw materials, and the processing fee may continue to fluctuate within a range. When the short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the spot circulation is temporarily tight, opportunities to expand short - fiber processing fees on dips or engage in positive spreads between contract months can be considered [4][65][66] Summary by Directory 1. Third - quarter Short - fiber Market Review - Short - fiber prices continued to be cost - driven, following polyester raw materials to rise and fall twice. The futures price of the main contract closed slightly lower than at the end of the second quarter. The spot processing margin briefly increased after operations such as joint production cuts and contract reductions by factories, then quickly gave back the gains, and later rebounded slightly with limited overall fluctuations [12] 2. Supply: The Industry Maintains High - level Operation but Lacks Elasticity for Further Growth - In the third quarter, the short - fiber operating rate first decreased and then steadily increased. From July to August 2025, the total short - fiber output was 1.442 million tons, with the average monthly output increasing by 3.5% compared to the second quarter. In mid - June, facing uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and the dilemma of high costs and low processing margins, short - fiber factories reached a resolution to jointly cut production by 15% in July and reduce contract volumes by 20%. In July, the short - fiber operating rate dropped from around 95% to below 90%, but since August, with the improvement of demand and inventory reduction, the operating rate gradually increased. By mid - September, it returned to around 95% [14] - Looking forward to the fourth quarter, short - fiber supply is expected to remain at a high level but lack incremental elasticity. New production capacity in the fourth quarter is unlikely to achieve effective output within the year. As of now, there is only an annual capacity increase of 340,000 tons in 2025, a 3.6% increase from last year. Although there is a probability of a 300,000 - ton/year device of Suqian Yida being put into operation, it is difficult to release significant incremental output within the year. The operating rate of existing production capacity has limited room for further increase. In 2025, the short - fiber industry's operating rate has been maintained at a relatively high level of 85% - 95%, about 5 - 10 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. Currently, the industry's operating rate is around 95%, and the operating rate of cotton - type short - fiber has soared to around 98%, leaving little room for further improvement [17][20] 3. Domestic Demand: The Peak Season Starts Slowly and Shows a Disappointing Outlook 3.1 Terminal Textile and Clothing Domestic Demand Remains Stable, and Export Growth Turns Negative - From January to August, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, and textile products were 940 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The consumer's consumption willingness continued to recover slowly, and the terminal consumer market maintained stable growth, but the overall growth rate was moderate, and the demand potential still needed to be further released. In terms of exports, from January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.27 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, textile exports were 94.51 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, and clothing exports were 102.76 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Affected by factors such as the increase in US tariffs, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports to the US turned negative, and the cumulative year - on - year decline showed an expanding trend. In addition, the export growth rate to some countries such as Europe and ASEAN also slowed down in the third quarter [28][34][36] 3.2 The Peak Season in the Weaving Segment Starts Slowly - This year, textile enterprises' orders have been weak, inventory has accumulated, competition has intensified, profit margins have declined significantly, and production enthusiasm has been suppressed. Although the "Golden September" has arrived, the improvement in the operating rate of the weaving segment is far less than that in the same period of 2023 and 2024, and it is also in the low - level range of the same period in the past five years. The transition from the off - season to the peak season in the terminal market has been significantly delayed, and the lackluster peak - season performance is emerging [44][45] 3.3 Downstream Yarn Mills Still Face Finished - Product Inventory Pressure, but Raw - Material Inventory Has Increased Quarter - on - Quarter - Terminal demand has not fully started, and yarn mills have faced slow inventory reduction due to weak downstream procurement. The low processing fee of pure polyester yarn has also restricted the operating enthusiasm of yarn mills. However, since the third quarter, the profit and inventory pressure in the downstream yarn segment have improved quarter - on - quarter. With peak - season expectations, the overall inventory level has increased, and short - fiber inventory has been smoothly reduced [50][52] 4. Exports: The Upward Shift of the Industrial Chain's Exports and the Continued Strong Growth of Short - fiber Exports - From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of uncombed polyester short - fiber (HS code 55032000) was 1.0965 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%. The reasons for the high - growth rate of exports are the obvious cost advantage of raw materials and the upward shift of the industrial chain's exports. It is estimated that the export increment in the first eight months has digested about 63.6% of the new short - fiber production. The export market has shared a significant sales pressure in the context of lackluster domestic demand [58] 5. Investment Suggestions - Given the fundamentals, as the terminal textile and clothing market lacks highlights, the downstream polyester yarn segment still faces finished - product inventory pressure, but the overall inventory level has increased due to peak - season expectations. The high growth rate of exports has compensated for the lack of domestic demand. On the supply side, with the industry operating at a high capacity, there is limited room for further supply growth. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of short - fiber is limited. The absolute price is expected to mainly follow the fluctuations of polyester raw materials, and the processing fee may continue to fluctuate within a range. When the short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the spot circulation is temporarily tight, opportunities to expand short - fiber processing fees on dips or engage in positive spreads between contract months can be considered [4][65][66]
风止青萍，水阔无波
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:15