烧碱周报：价格偏弱运行，关注节后变化-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market continues to trade on the Fed's interest rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the latest US non - farm payroll data. During the National Day holiday, the market is shipping based on previous orders, and enterprises may face some pressure. The price of liquid caustic soda in the East China region is expected to remain stable, while in the Shandong market, due to the approaching holiday, there is no obvious positive news on the demand side, and the inventory of local alkali plants is likely to increase, with the possibility of price cuts in the near future. The spot trend in Shandong is weak, demand is lower than expected, and the futures price is running weakly. Attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling and stabilize after the holiday. The recommended trading strategy is to set the upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2601 contract at 2700 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 2400 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: The report presents multiple charts showing the price trends of caustic soda in different regions (Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang), the price differences between different types of caustic soda (32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda), and the price relationships between caustic soda and related products (such as raw salt, liquid chlorine). The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel. In the week from 20250919 - 20250925, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda decreased by 2.36% to 1270 yuan/ton, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest remained at 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong remained at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 1.86% to 2950 yuan/ton [10][13][18]. - Futures Market: The report shows the price trends of caustic soda futures and its comparison with other related futures (soda ash, alumina, PVC), as well as the relationship between the caustic soda futures price and the number of warehouse receipts. The data is sourced from Wind and Mysteel [16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate: In the week of 20250919 - 0925, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The load in the Northwest decreased due to new device maintenance, while the load in North and East China increased after device maintenance. It is estimated that the weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda this week will be around 85.9%, and the weekly output will be around 845,700 tons. The report also lists the maintenance plans of multiple enterprises [22][23]. - Downstream Demand: For alumina, the current spot supply in northern China is relatively loose, while the market - available spot in Henan and Southwest China is still tight. The supply of domestic ore remains tight, and some enterprises continue to purchase imported ore. The production is relatively stable, but the narrowing profit due to falling prices makes enterprises more willing to negotiate lower prices for raw materials. It is expected that the domestic alumina price will continue to adjust weakly in the short term, with a price range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3% [27]. - Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 391,200 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 26.26%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, North, Central, and East China increased, while those in the Northeast, South, and Southwest decreased. In the North China region, the demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and the inventory increased; the high - concentration caustic soda inventory decreased. In Tianjin and Hebei, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the South China region, the inventory decreased due to reduced supply. In the Central China region, the inventory increased due to increased supply. In the East China region, the inventory increased slightly due to increased supply. In the Northwest region, the inventory in Gansu and Ningxia decreased due to maintenance, while the inventory in Shaanxi increased due to poor sales. In the Southwest region, the inventory decreased due to active pre - holiday stocking [30]. - Liquid Chlorine: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 32.26% to - 150 yuan/ton. The price increase was affected by the reduced supply in Jiangsu, and then remained stable. The supply and demand in Shandong did not change significantly, and downstream procurement was stable. In Hebei and the Northeast, the load of chlor - alkali enterprises increased, and downstream pre - holiday stocking was active, which supported the price of liquid chlorine. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.98%. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate this week will increase to 82.17% due to the increased operation of some enterprises. In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.34%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the caustic soda price decreased significantly, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased, and the chlor - alkali profit decreased [33][34].