原油产业周报：地缘溢价推升原油-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the crude oil market is the mismatch between short - term geopolitical (Russia - Ukraine conflict, Yemen situation) driven bullish momentum and insufficient medium - to - long - term fundamental support (no supply - demand gap, weak physical goods). Geopolitics is the current focus, but fundamentals restrict price increases [2]. - In the short term, the contradiction focuses on "whether geopolitical risks can continue" and "how the market digests overbought conditions". In the medium - to - long term, the core game lies in "the extent of demand decline" and "the intensity of supply adjustment" [2]. - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and a medium - term weak oscillation [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term core contradiction focuses on the continuation of geopolitical risks and the digestion of overbought conditions. The key variables are the spread of the Yemen situation to the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The medium - to - long - term core contradiction returns to fundamentals. On the demand side, the risk of economic recession in Europe and the US suppresses oil consumption, and although Asian demand provides some support, it cannot offset global weakness. On the supply side, there is no supply gap as OPEC+ may adjust supply and US shale oil production is stable [2][4]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is in a short - term rebound and medium - term weak oscillation. Suggested strategies include: in the month - spread strategy, go long on Brent2512 - 2602 and WTI2512 - 2602; in the domestic - foreign arbitrage strategy, go short on SC - Brent; in the crack spread, continue to hold short positions in RBOB gasoline - WTI and long positions in ICE diesel - Brent [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely to be bullish: Geopolitical risks have increased, injecting a premium; EIA inventory has a low increase, strengthening supply - demand support; sanctions and conflicts have intensified supply concerns [7]. - Likely to be bearish: The Middle - East physical market has weakened; global demand expectations have been continuously revised down; there is still room for supply - side flexibility [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Track the dynamics of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the escalation of US - Houthi armed conflicts, the impact of Israeli military air - strikes on Sanaa, and the safety of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. Also, be vigilant about the progress of the US - Iran talks. - Monitor the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict in the energy dimension, including the frequency of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the implementation of Russia's refined - oil export ban [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Volume, Price, and Fund Analysis - Trend analysis: This week, crude oil showed a geopolitically - driven oscillating upward trend, with Brent crude breaking through the September high. The trend is centered around the game between geopolitics and fundamentals [12]. - Domestic market: The short - term trend is oscillating upward. Technical indicators show short - term bullish momentum, but there is a risk of technical correction. The WTI and Brent crude in the international market also show upward trends, but attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [14][15]. - Fund and position analysis: Information on domestic and international crude oil futures positions and changes is provided [15][16]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Month - spread Tracking - Brent and WTI crude oil month - spreads maintain a slight Backwardation structure, indicating short - term supply tightness or stable demand. Dubai and domestic SC crude oil month - spreads are weak, reflecting the relatively weak domestic market [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - The spread between SC and Brent crude oil has rapidly narrowed, reflecting the decline of international oil prices and the relatively loose domestic supply - demand situation [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - The crude oil crack spread shows a clear differentiation of "strong diesel, weak gasoline". Diesel spreads may remain high in the short term, while gasoline spreads are difficult to improve. This differentiation is due to energy transformation and geopolitical games [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side Tracking - Information on US and Chinese refinery crude input, operating rates, and US crude oil production and rig numbers is provided [57][60]. 5.2 Demand - side Tracking - Data on US and Chinese refinery operating rates are presented [57]. 5.3 Inventory - side Tracking - As of September 19, data on US commercial crude oil, strategic petroleum, and Cushing region inventories are given [62]. 5.4 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA9 monthly report shows that global oil demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025, supply is rising, refinery throughput has fluctuations, and inventory has different trends. The market is affected by geopolitical concerns and the prospect of supply surplus [64][65][66].