玉米淀粉日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report has lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains at a high level. The price of US corn has declined and is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December import price from Brazil at 2,135 yuan. The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North China is falling, and the price difference between the two regions is widening. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The corn spot price is expected to be relatively stable in the short term. With the large - scale listing of new - season corn at the end of September, the spot price of corn is likely to continue to fall [5][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is weak. The spot price of starch in Shandong and the Northeast is also weak. This week, the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The price of by - products is still strong. In the medium to long term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to trade in a narrow range at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Corn futures contracts C2601, C2605, C2509 all declined, with C2601 closing at 2,135 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.19%); C2605 at 2,203 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.09%); C2509 at 2,227 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.13%). The trading volume of C2601 decreased by 4.39%, C2605 increased by 39.44%, and C2509 decreased by 19.42%. The open interest of C2601 increased by 1.28%, C2605 by 1.08%, and C2509 by 3.76% [3]. - Corn starch futures contracts CS2601, CS2605, CS2509 also declined. CS2601 closed at 2,458 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.16%); CS2605 at 2,546 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.08%); CS2509 at 2,585 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.08%). The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 12.98%, CS2605 by 58.26%, and CS2509 by 9.09%. The open interest of CS2601 increased by 5.14%, CS2605 by 2.50%, and CS2509 remained unchanged [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The basis varied from - 162 yuan in Qinggang to 223 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao [3]. - For starch, the spot prices of various manufacturers remained stable, and the basis ranged from 154 yuan (Longfeng, COFCO) to 444 yuan (Yufeng) [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - In corn inter - period spreads, C01 - C05 was - 68 yuan, down 2 yuan; C05 - C09 was - 24 yuan, up 1 yuan; C09 - C01 was 92 yuan, up 1 yuan. In starch inter - period spreads, CS01 - CS05 was - 88 yuan, down 2 yuan; CS05 - CS09 was - 39 yuan, unchanged; CS09 - CS01 was 127 yuan, up 2 yuan. In cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 was 358 yuan, up 1 yuan; CS01 - C01 was 323 yuan, unchanged; CS05 - C05 was 343 yuan, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market has a high production level, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range. China's tariff policies on US corn and sorghum have been adjusted. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price of corn in the North is stable, while that in the Northeast and North China is falling. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is widening, and the price difference between wheat and corn is also widening. The domestic breeding demand is weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. With the large - scale listing of new - season corn at the end of September, the spot price of corn is expected to continue to fall [5][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The spot price of corn in Shandong is weak, and the spot price of starch in Shandong and the Northeast is also weak. This week, the inventory of corn starch has decreased. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The price of by - products is strong. In the medium to long term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to trade in a narrow range at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Consider a light - position long on the 01 contract with a stop - loss set [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts showing the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract, which help to visually analyze the price trends and relationships of corn and corn starch [14][15][18][20].