白糖周报：白糖市场供应压力主导，需求转弱加剧震荡-20250929

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sugar market is in a weak and volatile stage. The core contradiction lies in the peak supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production during the new domestic sugar - making season, which suppresses prices. The seasonal weakening of demand further intensifies the downward pressure. In the short term, cost support and supply suppression coexist. It is expected that the sugar futures price will maintain a weak oscillation in the range of 5450 - 5550 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - Price Changes: The 11 - day sugar continuous contract closed at 15.87, up 2.65% from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5478, up 0.31%. Spot prices in various regions declined, with the Nanning price down 1.03%, the Liuzhou price down 1.20%, etc. [5] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 23.58% to 282 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.68% to 9464, indicating a reduction in physical delivery pressure. [5] - CFTC Non - commercial Positions: The number of long positions increased by 6.06%, the number of short positions decreased by 1.26%, and the net long positions increased by 18.13%. [5] - Market Sentiment: The proportions of bullish, bearish, and neutral views on Zhengzhou sugar remained unchanged at 20%, 45%, and 35% respectively. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Import Cost and Profit: For both Brazilian and Thai sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased slightly, while the out - quota profit space narrowed significantly. For example, the out - quota profit of Thai sugar decreased by 17.35% to 381 yuan/ton. [30] 3.3 International Market Fundamentals - The report lists aspects such as Brazil's available sugar volume, cane crushing volume, sugar production, ethanol production, sugar import and export, and international raw sugar premium and shipping costs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content. Relevant topics include sections from 3.1 to 3.6 [31].