瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. The EU plans to impose a 25%-50% tariff on Chinese steel and related products, which affects market sentiment. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, but the arrival volume declined. Domestic port inventories increased from a decrease, and the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and hot metal output of steel mills increased. Overall, the tariff disturbance and the approaching end of downstream restocking before the long holiday put pressure on iron ore prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are in a weak operation. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and hold light positions during the holiday [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; the position volume was 473,992 lots, a decrease of 34,937 lots. The 1-5 contract spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was -12,540 lots, an increase of 10,384 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 700 lots, a decrease of 1,300 lots. The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 836 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 4 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 772 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract was 52 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 103.90 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.31, a decrease of 0.03. The estimated import cost was 850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume was 34.754 million tons, an increase of 1.506 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.037 million tons, a decrease of 1.467 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 97.3639 million tons, an increase of 4.2696 million tons. The iron ore import volume was 105.22 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 25 days, an increase of 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines was 400,400 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines was 63.28%, a decrease of 0.95%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 432,700 tons, an increase of 56,000 tons. The BDI index was 2,259, a decrease of 7. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.94 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.10 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, an increase of 0.47%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, an increase of 0.50%. The domestic crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a decrease of 2.29 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.27%, a decrease of 2.98%. The 40-day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.00%, a decrease of 0.05%. The implied volatility of the at-the-money call option was 20.16%, a decrease of 1.35%. The implied volatility of the at-the-money put option was 19.61%, a decrease of 2.19% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 22 to September 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 34.754 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.506 million tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 28.64 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.912 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 20.28 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.092 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 17.714 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.002 million tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 8.361 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.179 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.037 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.467 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.605 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.145 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 10.014 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.886 million tons [2]