棉花基差影响因素研究及走势展望

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The high basis in the domestic cotton market during the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, along with issues in the cotton futures warehouse receipt structure [1][7][20]. - If the supply of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant than in the 2024/25 crop year, the overall basis trend in 2025/26 may be weaker than in 2024/25. Special attention should be paid to the basis downward pressure during the peak new - cotton listing period from November to December, and the basis may have difficulty replicating the strong upward trend from March to August 2025 after March 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Reasons for the "High Basis" of Domestic Cotton in the 2024/25 Crop Year - The basis of domestic cotton in the 2024/25 crop year remained at a high level throughout the year, especially from April to August 2025, which was the highest in the past 10 years [5]. - The fundamental reasons for the high basis were unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories. The strong demand was due to the expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, relatively low cotton prices, reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn, and increased "hoarding" demand, which led to concerns about tight inventories at the end of the 2024/25 crop year and pushed up the basis [7]. - The high basis was also related to the structure of cotton futures warehouse receipts. The increase in the proportion of inland warehouse receipts, the rise in the proportion of low - quality warehouse receipts such as those from Hami, and the high proportion of high - premium warehouse receipts all contributed to the strengthening of the basis [10]. 2. Outlook for the Domestic Cotton Basis Trend in the 2025/26 Crop Year - In terms of supply, the basis may be under pressure from November to December due to the listing of new cotton. If the new cotton is listed early and processed quickly, the basis will be under pressure; if the processing is slow, the basis may strengthen unexpectedly in October. Also, if the seed cotton price is lower than expected, the basis may first be firm and then weaken [14][15]. - Regarding demand, if the trade demand is weak at the beginning of the new - cotton listing and the domestic cotton demand in the 2025/26 crop year continues to fall short of expectations, the basis may weaken. The price is the main factor affecting demand. Lower prices can stimulate demand, and if the futures or spot prices are significantly lower than the new - cotton cost, it will support the basis [17]. - The changes in cotton commercial inventories and futures warehouse receipts also affect the basis. If the commercial inventory increases year - on - year and the month - on - month decline is slow after March 2026, the basis may weaken. The situation of futures warehouse receipts, including quantity and structure, also needs to be monitored [19]. 3. Summary - The high basis in the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, as well as the large - scale registration of warehouse receipts from Hami and high - index cotton, and the "arbitrage" of Xinjiang cotton to inland warehouses [20]. - If the supply in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant, the overall basis trend may be weaker. Attention should be paid to the procurement enthusiasm of spinning mills and traders at the beginning of the listing, the profit and operating rate of spinning mills, and the commercial inventory and warehouse receipt situation [21].