Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:55Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that the cotton price will continue to be weak in the later period, and suggests a short - term bearish approach [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,495 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 20,406 lots, an increase of 1,066 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 167 lots, a decrease of 47 lots [2]. - The position volume of the main cotton contract is 530,559 lots, a decrease of 4,260 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract is 5,258 lots, a decrease of 1,382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 3,173, a decrease of 224; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count yarn is 20,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,301 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count yarn is 21,380 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,158 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index of pure - combed cotton 32 - count combed yarn is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,627 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily import cotton profit is 899 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, a decrease of 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.87 days, a decrease of 1.31 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 10 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1414.5904 million US dollars, a decrease of 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1239.3202 million US dollars, an increase of 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton is 13.26%, an increase of 2.61%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton is 13.26%, an increase of 2.64% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.92%, a decrease of 1.64%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.29%, an increase of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2,020 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 45,420 lots, an increase of 2,771 lots from the previous week [2]. - As of September 23, about 49% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 41% the previous week [2]. - From September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks; the export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2]. View Summary - In China, cotton harvesting has started in northern Xinjiang, with a strong expectation of increased production. The purchase price of seed cotton has decreased, and the downstream textile enterprises are not enthusiastic about restocking, mostly adopting a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2]. - The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the continuous accumulation of cotton yarn inventory has further pressured the market [2].