Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:54Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic northern sugar mills have started crushing in small quantities, and the sugar production in the new year is expected to increase slightly, with spot prices weakening steadily. The control of imported syrup from Thailand has been relaxed, and the quantity of syrup is expected to rise slightly later. The sugar sales progress in Guangxi is slow and is squeezed by processed sugar. However, the typhoon has caused sugarcane lodging in Guangxi, providing short - term support to the market, but upward movement is restricted by sufficient supply. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1; the main contract position is 417,045 lots, down 10,429; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,981, down 483; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 81,305 lots, down 332; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] 现货市场 - The import - processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,454 yuan/ton, up 29; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,397 yuan/ton, up 28; the import - estimated price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,657 yuan/ton, up 37; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,584 yuan/ton, up 38. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 上游情况 - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86. The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 999.89 million tons, up 44.98. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, up 1. The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, up 90,000; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 374.4 million tons, up 15.03 [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1,226 yuan/ton, down 36; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 1,283 yuan/ton, down 35. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 23 yuan/ton, down 44; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 96 yuan/ton, down 45 [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, up 4.41; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,775.8 million tons, down 20.8 [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.35%, up 0.09; that of at - the - money put options is 8.35%, up 0.09. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.82%, up 0.14; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.39%, down 0.01 [2] 行业消息 - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 125,628 lots, an increase of 19,284 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 173,035 lots, a decrease of 2,211 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 298,663 lots, an increase of 17,073 lots from the previous week. As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [2] 提示关注 - Currently, there is no news today [2]