Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:54Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The future focus of monetary policy is to implement the introduced policies. The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the supply and increases the cost of nickel resources. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is recovering, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory is increasing rapidly. The new electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters are reducing production due to low nickel prices, so the refined nickel production is expected to remain stable at a high level. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and they are increasing production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, the domestic inventory has decreased, while the overseas LME inventory has increased. Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is oscillating, and there are differences in long - short trading, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread is - 280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,155 dollars/ton, down 85 dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 83,149 hands, down 735 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 28,940 hands, up 470 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 231,312 tons, up 1,188 tons; the上期所 nickel inventory is 29,008 tons, down 826 tons; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt quantity is 25,057 tons, down 96 tons [3] 现货 Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the NI main contract is 900 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 178.77 dollars/ton, down 4.42 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 634.67 million tons, up 134.09 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1409.37 million tons, up 9.26 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 61.33 dollars/ton, down 2.43 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, down 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 87.41 million tons, up 3.82 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.23 million tons, up 0.35 million tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, and tariffs will be imposed if the standard is not met. In August, the core PCE price index in the US increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3]