2025年国庆假期持仓交易策略

Group 1: Report Summary - The historical price fluctuations of overseas commodities during the National Day holiday are generally within -3% to 4%, but the amplitude has increased in recent years, especially for crude oil [4]. - In 2025, after the Fed restarted interest rate cuts, the market is in a transition period, with various assets showing significant divergence and contradictions, and prices fluctuating sharply [8]. - Domestically, there has been a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality. After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the market's optimism declined, and asset prices adjusted [9]. Group 2: Market Outlook Overseas Market - The situation in the Russia - Ukraine war and the Middle East is tense, which may impact crude oil and freight rates. The US September non - farm payroll data will affect the Fed's future interest rate cut path and the new macro - logic [8]. Domestic Market - The domestic market has shown a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to focus on the economic fundamentals. The anti - involution policy has achieved initial results but still has a long way to go [9]. Group 3: Positioning Strategies Shanghai Copper (SHFE Copper) - Fundamentals remain tight in the long - term. In the short - term, there may be a correction due to high prices, and it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the National Day holiday [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market has support, but the overall supply - demand situation is still loose. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [15]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand tightness has improved, with short - term corrections. It is recommended to be out of the market or hold a small short position [17]. Crude Oil - Supply - demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices in the long - term and be out of the market during the holiday [20][22]. Asphalt - Cost support has strengthened, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure on crude oil is high. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [24]. PP (Polypropylene) - Expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday due to increased margin requirements [25]. Plastic - Expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday due to increased margin requirements [28]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to hold a light short position during the holiday [31][33]. Urea - In a supply - demand surplus situation, with short - term technical rebounds and low - level oscillations. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [35][36]. Group 4: Holiday Financial Events and Macro Data - During the National Day holiday, important economic data such as China's September official manufacturing PMI and the US September non - farm payroll data will be released, which are worthy of attention [41].