Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:51Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips, with attention on the 271,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and the 275,000 resistance level should be watched. The domestic inventory has decreased due to some pre - holiday stockpiling, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,410 yuan/ton, down 1,660 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 500 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decline. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,415 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,590 lots, down 2,701 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 890 lots, down 474 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,775 tons, up 35 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 6,559 tons, down 429 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,950 tons, down 127 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,400 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,110 yuan/ton, down 2,570 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan, and the LME tin spread (0 - 3) is - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates' processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 259,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 263,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,170 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing existing policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council calls on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, with tariffs imposed if not met. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to multiple factors such as some enterprises' resumption of production and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with a low willingness to actively stockpile. Due to the approaching National Day holiday, some enterprises have made small - scale pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory and a spot premium of 300 yuan/ton, while the LME inventory has increased and the spot premium is at a low level [3]