瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side shows that the imports of zinc ore at home and abroad have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, the profit margin of smelters is large, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, the tight overseas zinc ore situation has led to an expansion of import losses and a decline in imported zinc inflows, with the export window nearly opening. On the demand side, the off - peak season in the downstream is evident. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not high, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to a low level. Downstream enterprises are purchasing as needed, with a slow pick - up rhythm, but the arrival volume is low, resulting in a decline in domestic social inventory and a slight increase in spot premiums. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and spot premiums have risen, supporting zinc prices. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, there is a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 21,800 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,886.5 dollars/ton, down 36 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 251,024 lots, an increase of 20,743 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 10,043 lots, a decrease of 3,089 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 59,264 tons, an increase of 1,691 tons. The SHFE inventory is 100,544 tons, an increase of 1,229 tons, and the LME inventory is 42,775 tons, a decrease of 1,025 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,630 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,180 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 170 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 39.84 dollars/ton, down 14.09 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,710 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,200 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0814 million tons, an increase of 30,100 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, an increase of 7,752.92 tons; refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, a decrease of 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 135,300 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.35 million tons, unchanged; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters; the housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, an increase of 26.5954 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.7524 million vehicles, an increase of 242,400 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, a decrease of 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.58%, down 0.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.58%, down 0.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.01%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.79%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the focus of future monetary policy is to implement the introduced policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, and tariffs will be imposed if the standard is not met. In August, the US core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3]