Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:50Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weekly output of rebar remains at a low level with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Inventory continues to decline while apparent demand increases. Overall, tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. As the holiday approaches, spot trading is average and the short side dominates the mainstream positions in the futures market. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that both DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis with the green bar expanding. The operation suggestion is to maintain a bias towards a downward trend with a light position during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,097.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; RB main contract holdings are 1,926,639 lots, down 49,906 lots; RB contract top 20 net positions are -170,831 lots, up 50,336 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread is -58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 275,938 tons, down 2,412 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 192 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,374 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. RB main contract basis is 193.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil to rebar spot spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 779.00 yuan/wet ton, down 4.00 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,970.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 392,900 tons, down 29,200 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.6138 million tons, up 164,800 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory is 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons. The 247 - steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 84.47%, up 0.47 percentage points; the 247 - steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.88%, up 0.50 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar output is 2.0646 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate is 45.26%, unchanged. The sample steel mill rebar inventory is 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory is 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 65.63%, down 2.08 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output is 15.18 million tons, down 230,000 tons; the steel net export volume is 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index is 93.05, down 0.28; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area is 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to exert efforts and implement macro - policies in a timely manner. It will also strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning, and make policy pre - research and reserves. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance in the construction steel industry remained at a peak. There were 14 production lines under maintenance (1 less than last week) and 4 production lines restarted (6 less than last week) in 12 provinces. The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 2.933 million tons this week. On Monday, the RB2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. Multiple new first - tier cities are researching new real estate market policies to stimulate the demand for improved housing [2].