铁合金周报：合金供需双弱，节前波动趋窄-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing weak supply and demand, and price fluctuations are narrowing before the holiday. Since September, there have been few changes in the supply - demand fundamentals of the alloy market. The market lacks expectations and capital attention. In the short term, a wide - range oscillation is expected. Before the holiday, it is recommended to operate with light positions, and the industrial hedging strategy remains unchanged [4][23] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Silicon Iron 3.1.1 Supply - The production of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises reached 114,500 tons per week (a 1.2% increase from the previous week and a 4.5% increase year - on - year). In August 2025, the monthly production of silicon iron was 493,300 tons (a 10.43% increase from the previous month and a 7.42% increase year - on - year). The production rate stopped falling and production increased [6] 3.1.2 Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 19,800 tons (a 1.4% increase from the previous week and a 2.8% increase year - on - year). The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.649 million tons (a 1.1% increase from the previous week and a 5.1% increase year - on - year), indicating that the demand from the steel industry has rebounded [9] 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 61,400 tons (a 3% decrease from the previous week and a 17.4% decrease year - on - year). The inventory days of steel mills in September were 15.52 days (an increase of 0.85 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.99 days year - on - year). The inventory of manufacturers decreased, but the decline rate slowed down [12] 3.1.4 Cost - The price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu increased from 660 to 700 yuan, a 6.06% increase; the price of oxidized iron scale in Hebei increased from 830 to 970 yuan, a 16.87% increase. The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia all increased by about 1.5% [16] 3.1.5 Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 17,628 (an increase of 1,163 from the previous week and an increase of 4,847 year - on - year). The basis of the 11 - contract of silicon iron in Ningxia was 20 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a slight premium [19] 3.1.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text 3.2 Manganese Silicon 3.2.1 Supply - The production of 121 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 206,000 tons per week (a 1.1% decrease from the previous week and a 17.4% increase year - on - year). In August, the national silicon - manganese production was 909,300 tons (a 10.9% increase from the previous month and a 7.4% increase year - on - year). The production decline widened, and the production rate decreased in the north and increased in the south [26] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 122,000 tons (a 0.8% increase from the previous week and a 6.9% increase year - on - year). The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.649 million tons (a 1.1% increase from the previous week and a 5.1% increase year - on - year). However, the rigid demand and speculative sentiment were weak, and the steel - related consumption continued to decline [28] 3.2.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of enterprises was 234,000 tons (a 17.5% increase from the previous week and a 55.3% increase year - on - year). The inventory days of steel mills in September were 15.93 days (an increase of 0.95 days from the previous month and an increase of 1.11 days year - on - year). The inventory of manufacturers continued to accumulate, and the pressure continued to rise [31] 3.2.4 Cost - Before the holiday, manganese ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Some raw materials such as semi - coke and manganese ore had small price changes, and the cost of silicon manganese in different regions also had corresponding minor adjustments [39] 3.2.5 Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 60,676 (a decrease of 764 from the previous week and a decrease of 65,302 year - on - year). The 01 - contract basis of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 202 yuan/ton, an 86 - yuan increase from the previous week. The futures market maintained a discount [35] 3.2.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text