Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend as the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fades and the rubber market enters a phase dominated by a weak supply - demand structure [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is likely to keep a weak and volatile trend due to the pressure from the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 may maintain a strong and volatile trend considering the enhanced geopolitical risks, such as the continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the threat of strong tariff sanctions on Russia by the US [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons (0.76%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07% and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04% [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points week - on - week and 6.95 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week and 6.27 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume in the first eight months of 2025 reached 710,000, a 13% increase year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, a 0.12% increase week - on - week, a 2.80% decrease month - on - month, and a 1.43% decrease compared to the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8727 million tons, a significant increase of 59,500 tons week - on - week, a slight decrease of 45,600 tons month - on - month, and an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.41%, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a 1.52% increase week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.62%, a 0.90% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 58.35%, a 0.69% increase week - on - week [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and a 0.70 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. As of September 29, 2025, the futures盘面 profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 180 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease week - on - week and a 71 - yuan/ton decrease month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant increase of 62,500 tons week - on - week, 395,600 tons month - on - month, and 487,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week and 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared to the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, an increase of 2 week - on - week and a decrease of 70 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 301,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant decrease of 9.285 million barrels week - on - week and 2.152 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a slight decrease of 296,000 barrels week - on - week. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a slight increase of 504,000 barrels week - on - week [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 212,383 contracts, a significant decrease of 8,027 contracts week - on - week and a 4.97% increase compared to the August average [15]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 725 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 2,359 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot price of crude oil was 474.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures price of the main contract was 490.5 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The basis was - 16.2 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/barrel [17]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, inland methanol social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting, crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [18][20][22][31][43]
谨慎情绪主导能化震荡偏弱：橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-29 09:56