中原期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1纯碱 - In the short - term, pre - holiday restocking by mid - and downstream enterprises led to a temporary reduction in soda ash plant inventories, but high inventory and high supply still strongly suppress prices. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton. In the long - term, under the pattern of new capacity launch, the supply - demand of soda ash remains loose, and opportunities to short on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered [5]. 2.2 Glass - In the short - term, macro - sentiment and the expectation of supply reduction still have a strong impact. The glass 2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1170 - 1320 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in Shahe coal - fired production lines and macro - impacts [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The device operating rate was 89.12% (up 3.59% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda method at 89.87% (up 1% week - on - week) and the combined - soda method at 82.15% (up 6.62% week - on - week). The weekly output was 77.69 tons (up 3.12 tons week - on - week), including light soda ash output of 34.68 tons (up 1.88 tons) and heavy soda ash output of 43.01 tons (up 1.24 tons) [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 88.10 tons (up 9.34 tons), with light soda ash at 36.72 tons (up 2.57 tons) and heavy soda ash at 51.38 tons (up 6.77 tons) [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 165.15 tons (down 4.42 tons), light soda ash inventory was 72.91 tons (up 0.33 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 92.24 tons (down 4.75 tons) [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.07 tons, up 0.31% compared to the 18th. There were 296 glass production lines in China, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 9.29% year - on - year [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight cases, down 1.553 million weight cases week - on - week (down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year). The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period [6]. - Demand: As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, up 1.0% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - Soda ash spot prices remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, also with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11]. - The price of the soda ash main contract fluctuated. As of September 25, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area was - 90 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The glass futures price rebounded significantly, and the glass basis in the Shahe area was - 182 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from last week) [14]. 3.2.2 Market Review - Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the 1 - 5 spread of soda ash was - 89 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 1 - 5 spread of glass was - 113 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread was 45 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan/ton week - on - week) [20]. 3.2.3 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash weekly output was 77.69 tons (up 3.12 tons week - on - week), light soda ash output was 34.68 tons (up 1.88 tons), and heavy soda ash output was 43.01 tons (up 1.24 tons). Recently, there were limited changes in soda ash enterprise devices, and soda ash supply was expected to remain at a high level [26]. - There were 296 domestic glass production lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The national float glass daily output was 16.07 tons, up 0.31% compared to the 18th. This week, the national float glass output was 112.42 tons, up 0.27% week - on - week and down 2.56% year - on - year. The daily melting in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons/day, unchanged week - on - week and down 9.29% year - on - year [46]. 3.2.4 Fundamental - Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 165.15 tons (down 4.42 tons), light soda ash inventory was 72.91 tons (up 0.33 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 92.24 tons (down 4.75 tons) [39]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight cases, down 1.553 million weight cases week - on - week (down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year). The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period [50]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - Profit - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda method soda ash in China was - 37.20 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of combined - soda method soda ash in China was - 77.50 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].