乙二醇日报：港口累库压制供需僵持，乙二醇延续弱势运行-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol is likely to continue its low - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The upper limit is restricted by port inventory pressure and the risk of coal - based cost collapse, while the lower limit is supported by oil - based costs. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of coal - chemical production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on oil - based route costs. If inventory reduction fails to meet expectations, prices may face further pressure [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Summary - Price and Basis: On September 26, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan from the previous day, and the weekly decline widened to 0.78%. The East China spot price weakened to 4,275 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened slightly to 77 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped sharply by 201 yuan to - 66 yuan/ton, indicating a pessimistic market expectation for future supply and demand [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract increased by 27.59% and 2.62% respectively, with open interest reaching 326,000 lots, indicating intensified capital games [2]. - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 69.78%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based production were stable at 74.39% and 62.95% respectively. The coal - based profit deteriorated further to - 584 yuan/ton, but the current supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - Demand Side: The load of downstream polyester factories remained at a high level of 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was stable at 63.43%. The terminal demand improved seasonally to a limited extent, and the polyester sales were dull, resulting in mainly rigid procurement of ethylene glycol and a lack of incremental drivers [2]. - Inventory Side: The inventory in the East China main port climbed to 48.57 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The arrival volume decreased, but the port shipping speed slowed down, and the explicit inventory pressure increased significantly, suppressing market sentiment [3]. b. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 26, the main contract price of MEG futures was 4,213 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 0.70% [5]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread of MEG dropped by 148.89% to - 66 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.56% to - 63 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 281.69% to 129 yuan/ton [5]. - Profits: The coal - based profit decreased by 13.18% to - 584 yuan/ton, while the profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production were not provided [5]. - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate remained unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load was 63.4% [5]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. c. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - September 28: International oil prices rose slightly, with stable cost - side support. The ethylene glycol futures market was closed, and the market trading atmosphere was light. The East China price was around 4,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream market fluctuated slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was also stable [6]. - September 26: International oil prices fluctuated little, and the cost - side lacked driving force. The ethylene glycol supply - demand pattern was weak, and the spot basis narrowed slightly. The East China price was around 4,293 yuan/ton. The mainstream market declined slightly, the South China market was stable, and the Shaanxi market was stable [6]. d. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory in the East China main port [8][10][12]