中辉期货品种策略日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term decline: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, the short - term supply is sufficient with various influencing factors such as soybean harvest and trade policies, and the prices are expected to decline in the short term [1][3][5]. - Short - term continued adjustment: Palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors like the US biodiesel policy and soybean harvest, and their prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [1][6][7]. - High - level oscillation: Rapeseed oil is supported by trade disputes and inventory cycles but limited by trade expansion, maintaining a high - level oscillating trend [1]. - Cautiously bearish: Cotton and jujube face supply pressure and other issues, and their prices are cautiously expected to decline. Strategies suggest short - term short - allocation for cotton and seizing short - selling opportunities for jujube [1][8][11][14]. - Cautiously bearish for live pigs: Live pigs are under supply pressure in the short and medium term, and there is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soymeal - Market data: The futures price of soymeal's main contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 217.4407 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.12 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Supply and demand: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, a decrease of 70.30 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, and the soymeal inventory was 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons from the previous week [3]. - Outlook: The start of the US soybean harvest and the increase in domestic inventory put short - term pressure on soymeal. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continued downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, the US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market data: The futures price of rapeseed meal's main contract was 2444 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - Supply and demand: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Outlook: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows that of soymeal. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Market data: The futures price of palm oil's main contract was 9222 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price was 9250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%. The national daily trading volume was 800 tons, an increase of 166.67% [6]. - Supply and demand: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from the previous week. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports increased by 11.31% compared to the same period in August [7]. - Outlook: Frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may suppress palm oil's performance before the double festivals. A short - term weak oscillating market is expected. Attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil exports this month and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - Market data: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.92% to 13405 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.32% to 15059 yuan/ton. ICE cotton's main contract increased by 0.08% to 65.19 cents/pound [9]. - Supply and demand: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is progressing, and the supply pressure is increasing. Domestically, new cotton has started preliminary harvesting, with weak farmers' price - holding sentiment and no obvious rush - to - buy situation. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend [9][10][11]. - Outlook: The supply side is under pressure, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to maintain a pressured oscillating market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1][8][11]. 3.5 Jujube - Market data: The jujube's main contract CJ2601 increased by 2.97% to 11285 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply and demand: The main jujube - producing areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory is higher than the same period. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - Outlook: Considering the output and inventory, there is still pressure after the new jujubes are listed. Before November, there may be large price fluctuations due to speculation. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1][14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Market data: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs decreased by 0.98% to 12575 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable at 12760 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Supply and demand: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the number of piglets born from January to August is increasing, indicating a potential increase in slaughter volume. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is declining [16]. - Outlook: The spot price is under double pressure from slaughter and feed. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure will drive the price down. There is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17].