瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Corn - In the 2025/26 season, the expected corn production in the EU 27 countries is lowered to 5.68 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous year and 9.4% below the five - year average due to drought in some eastern European main - producing areas [2]. - The USDA report predicts that the 2025/26 US corn production will reach 16.814 billion bushels, a record high, and the ending stocks will reach a seven - year high. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase. However, early harvest results are mixed, suggesting a possible downward adjustment in US corn production [2]. - In the domestic market, the harvest area of new grain in Liaoning and Heilongjiang in the Northeast is expanding, and farmers are actively selling. New grain is being supplied to the market, and more processing enterprises are starting to purchase. But as the supply of new corn increases, downstream demand is relatively weak, deep - processing enterprises' losses are intensifying, and purchase prices have been lowered. The new - season corn supply will continue to constrain the futures market [2]. Corn Starch - The current market for corn starch is weak, and enterprises are still in a loss - making state. The industry's operating rate is generally low. With relatively small supply pressure and a slight improvement in pre - holiday demand, inventory has continued to decline. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a weekly decrease of 61,000 tons (-5.08%), a monthly decrease of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. However, industry inventory remains high, and tapioca starch and wheat starch have good substitution advantages, continuing to squeeze the market demand for corn starch. Although there has been a slight rebound at low levels recently, the lack of demand support means the market maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 68 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1): 25 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 640,186 lots, down 52,330 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 164,355 lots, down 2740 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 50,656 lots, down 2443 lots; for corn starch: - 37,409 lots, up 1501 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 21,549 lots, down 265 lots; for corn starch: 8189 lots, unchanged [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 421.5 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions: - 51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2369.61 yuan/ton, up 1.57 yuan; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2280 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory quotation of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 1947.21 yuan/ton, down 0.66 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis of the corn main contract: 210.61 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis of the corn starch main contract: 77 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - Shandong starch - to - corn price difference (weekly): 360 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan; tapioca starch - to - corn starch price difference (weekly): 265 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted corn production in the US (monthly): 425.26 million tons, up 26.33 million tons; in Brazil: 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina: 53 million tons, unchanged; in China: 295 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine: 32 million tons, up 1.5 million tons [2]. - Forecasted corn sown area in the US (monthly): 35.89 million hectares, up 0.77 million hectares; in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China: 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 375,000 tons, down 226,000 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 2.118 million tons, down 222,000 tons [2]. - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 800,000 tons, down 70,000 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 1.139 million tons, down 61,000 tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 60,000 tons, down 100,000 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 15,940 tons, up 1440 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Monthly output of feed: 2.9272 million tons, up 99,900 tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 26.01 days, down 0.15 days; corn starch processing profit in Hebei: 17 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Weekly consumption of deep - processing corn: 1.1464 million tons, down 9900 tons; corn starch processing profit in Jilin: - 179 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 47.88%, down 2.43 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 50.36%, up 2.21 percentage points [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 9.55%, up 0.22 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.65%, up 0.13 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 10.18%, up 0.13 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 10.18%, up 0.14 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The expected corn production of the EU 27 countries in the 2025/26 season has been lowered to 56.8 million tons, lower than the August forecast of 57.6 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous year and 9.4% below the five - year average, due to drought in some eastern European main - producing areas [2]. - US President Trump said that the government plans to use tariff revenues to assist US farmers affected by trade policies, indicating the upcoming introduction of a new round of agricultural relief measures [2]. - The USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach 16.814 billion bushels, a record high, and the ending stocks will reach a seven - year high [2].