瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250929

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is currently influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. The economic data in August shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" that may continue, and the economic growth in the third quarter is under pressure, which supports the current bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive news, the market is sensitive to negative news, and the uncertainty of the new regulations on public bond funds continues to disrupt the market. Bearish sentiment still dominates, and it is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue the pattern of weak oscillation in the short term. For strategies, it is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis, and also pay attention to the trading opportunities of long - term term spreads brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Conditions - Closing Prices and Volume Changes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.02%, and 0.47% respectively, while the trading volumes of T, TF, and TL main contracts increased by 3,714, 8,400, and 15,841 respectively, and the trading volume of TS main contract decreased by 5,338 [2] - Futures Spread Changes: Among the futures spreads, TL2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603, TS2512 - 2603, T12 - TL12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 spreads increased, T2512 - 2603 and TF12 - T12 spreads decreased [2] - Futures Position Changes: The main contract positions of T increased by 1,048, while those of TF, TS, and TL decreased by 2,164, 894, and 1,283 respectively. The net short positions of T and TF increased by 44 and 1,960 respectively, and those of TS and TL decreased by 291 and 2,718 respectively [2] CTD and Active Bond Quotes - CTD Net Price Changes: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220019.IB, 250018.IB decreased, while those of 210005.IB, 220008.IB increased [2] - Active Bond Yield Changes: The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds decreased by 0.60bp, 1.50bp, 1.05bp, and 0.25bp respectively, and the yields of 3 - year active bonds increased by 0.52bp [2] Interest Rate Conditions - Short - term Interest Rate Changes: The overnight silver - pledged and Shibor overnight interest rates increased by 0.21bp and 0.10bp respectively, the 7 - day silver - pledged and Shibor 7 - day interest rates increased by 35.33bp and 2.60bp respectively, the 14 - day silver - pledged interest rate increased by 7.16bp, and the Shibor 14 - day interest rate decreased by 1.00bp. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 288.6 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 240.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net investment of 48.1 billion yuan [2] Industry News - By the end of 2024, the total national population was 1.40828 billion, and the working - age population aged 16 - 59 was 857.98 million, accounting for 60.9% of the total population, with a scale advantage and demographic dividend still existing [2] - On September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the total scale of new policy - based financial instruments was 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital, and efforts were being made to invest the funds in specific projects [2] - From January to August, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Among them, the profits of state - holding enterprises decreased by 1.7%, while those of joint - stock enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises, and private enterprises increased by 1.1%, 0.9%, and 3.3% respectively [2]