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有色金属日报-20250929
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-29 11:13

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Alumina: No clear indication from the symbol, but it's in a weak - running state [1][3] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Zinc: ☆☆, indicating a long/short bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the market [1] - Lead: ☆☆, same as above [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Tin: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] - Polysilicon: No clear indication from the symbol [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, mine production, inventory changes, and market sentiment. Different metals are in different market states, with some showing upward or downward trends, while others are in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock. The spot copper was reported at 82,210 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount was 5 yuan. The supply absence of Grasberg for two quarters affected the balance sheet and the price shock center. Technically, LME copper showed potential for a trend breakthrough, and the MA20 moving average provided strong support. After the long - term damage to the supply of major copper mines, funds poured in and increased positions, driving up the price. The support level of LME copper rose to $10,000, and the Shanghai copper index was around 79,700 - 80,300 yuan, with 83,000 - 85,000 yuan being the high - level area [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly today, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 25,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The destocking before the National Day was neutral, and the apparent consumption in September was basically flat year - on - year. The demand was resilient but lacked highlights. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remained at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increased enterprise costs, making it more resilient than Shanghai aluminum. However, the industry inventory was at a high level, and the peak - season demand remained to be seen. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 98 million tons, and the industry inventory continued to rise. The supply surplus was obvious, and the domestic and foreign spot prices continued to decline. The current price still had a profit for the production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was not enough to trigger production cuts. The weak - running support of alumina was around the June low of 2,800 yuan [3] Zinc - As the National Day holiday approached, the downstream restocking was coming to an end. The production expectation of Huoshaoyun zinc smelter was strengthening, and the zinc fundamentals were weakening. Short - sellers increased their positions significantly. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 20,700 lots to 251,000 lots, and the main contract touched a minimum of 21,665 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic concentrate TC in October was significantly reduced by 300 yuan/metal ton. With the poor smelting profit of imported ore, the domestic mines were less willing to offer concessions. The support level of Shanghai zinc was still to be concerned at 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was low, so beware of the possible sudden soft squeeze on the overseas market during the holiday. It was recommended that short - sellers close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties during the National Day holiday [4] Lead - The previously overhauled primary lead smelters resumed production one after another. After the profit of secondary lead smelters was repaired, the resumption of production also increased. The downstream restocking before the holiday was basically over, and the long holiday brought short - term oversupply. The lead fundamentals were weakening, and the long - positions of Shanghai lead accelerated to leave the market. The market dropped significantly, erasing the monthly increase in a single day. The supply of lead concentrates was still tight, and the cost support around 16,500 yuan/ton was still to be concerned [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was running weakly, and the market trading was dull. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 325 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 25 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was quoted at 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation turmoil, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 40,900 tons, the nickel ferrochrome inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 909,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and the nickel price was running weakly, about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down in shock, and the MA40 moving average provided support. Pay attention to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 in the evening. On the supply side, pay attention to the change in the refined tin operating rate after the major factories resume production after the holiday. On the demand side, the domestic tin upstream and downstream continued the destocking rhythm and actively restocked before the holiday. Pay attention to the inventory change after the holiday, and the actual demand still lacked highlights. The tin price was difficult to break out of a trend market for the time being. After the restocking was over, it was recommended to hold a light position and wait and see during the holiday [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 136,800 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 1,400 tons to 61,000 tons. After the price dropped rapidly, the downstream took the opportunity to take delivery, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,140 tons to 42,000 tons. The middle - stream began to be cautious. The transfer of cargo rights was mainly from the upstream to the downstream. The low - level support of the lithium carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut was implemented and the anti - involution tide ebbed, the price was under pressure from the expected end. Still pay attention to the news on September 30th [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased in position and fell back to 8,600 yuan/ton, partly affected by the weakening sentiment of the coking coal market. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was reduced by 50 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton. Although the expected reduction in the polysilicon production schedule in October was limited, the drag on the demand for industrial silicon was relatively controllable. However, the time node of production cuts in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas of industrial silicon was still uncertain, and the supply - side contraction rhythm was not clear. From the current supply - demand pattern, it was difficult to form an effective driving force to support the continuous upward movement of the price, and the upward space was still restricted. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures market oscillation narrowed. With the gradual advancement of policies, the sentiment gradually returned to rationality. The production reduction intensity of polysilicon in October might be less than the previous market expectation, and the overall output contraction of the industry was limited. The industry was still in the period of high - level inventory accumulation, and the rise of the spot price slowed down. The short - term market was expected to maintain an oscillating operation. As the National Day holiday approached, it was recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [11]