燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：美国库存充足、欧洲储库推进、国内需求缓慢修复，各地气价均较为平稳-20250929

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The gas prices across various regions remain stable due to sufficient inventory in the US, progress in European storage, and slow recovery in domestic demand [1][10] - The report highlights the gradual implementation of price adjustments in urban gas companies, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery [38] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and the potential impact of US LNG import tariffs on companies with US gas sources [54][56] Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -0.1%, European TTF +1.2%, East Asia JKM -0.6%, China LNG ex-factory -0.1%, and China LNG CIF -2.1% [10][14] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 1,117 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 1,013 billion cubic feet per day [16] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that US natural gas inventory is sufficient, with a week-on-week increase of 750 billion cubic feet to 35,080 billion cubic feet [16] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to June 2025 was 2,408 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [19] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 2,832 billion cubic meters from January to August 2025 [25][34] Pricing Mechanism Progress - Nationwide price adjustments have been gradually implemented, with 65% of cities adjusting residential gas prices by an average of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [38] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price gap recovery in urban gas companies [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [56] - Companies with gas production capabilities, like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings, are suggested for attention due to the increasing uncertainty in US gas imports [56]