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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall corn production in Heilongjiang this year is slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. The grain quality is better, especially with a high bulk density. The new - grain price is still weak. [13][12] - In the short - term (before November), the corn market is bearish; in the medium - term, the downside is limited, and there is a strong willingness to build inventories at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying. In the long - term, the upside is not optimistic due to the pending release of policy grain sources. Overall, the corn price is expected to be relatively stable, and policy guidance is crucial. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Season Production Situation - Sown Area: The overall sown area in Heilongjiang decreased slightly year - on - year, with a 4% decline in the eastern region and some local areas having stable or increased areas. [14] - Yield per Unit: Excluding a small number of drought - affected plots, most areas saw an increase in yield per unit. In eastern Heilongjiang, the yield per unit was mostly 12 - 13 tons/ha this year, compared to 11 - 12 tons/ha last year. [14] - Grain Quality: The overall grain quality is better than last year, with a high bulk density (generally 710 - 720), and in Baoquanling, the bulk density is 740 - 750 with low toxin levels. [12] - Production: Slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. [13] - Planting Cost: In eastern Heilongjiang, the average land rent this year is 12,000 yuan/ha, down from 13,000 yuan/ha last year. The total cost is about 18,000 yuan/ha, corresponding to a wet - grain price of 0.6 - 0.75 yuan/jin and a dried - grain price of 1520 - 1900 yuan/ton. [16] - Opening Price: The opening price of processing enterprises showed a high - to - low trend. The price of deep - processing enterprises dropped from 0.85 yuan/jin to 0.79 yuan/jin by September 24, and the overall new - grain price is still weak. [17] - Grain - Selling and Acquisition Emotions: Some farmers are eager to sell due to high temperatures, while traders and processors are not in a hurry to buy. Some farmers will hold back if the price is below 0.8 yuan/jin and will sell in December to repay loans. Harvesting will start comprehensively during the National Day holiday. [18] - Answers to Questions: Drought has no impact on production; the impact of increased production on prices is limited; the market previously traded the planting - cost - based port price at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton; the bottom price of wet grain is expected to be 0.75 yuan/jin, corresponding to a port price of 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton. [23][22] Trade and Downstream Situation - Market Outlook: Short - term (before November) bearish; medium - term, limited downside with support at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying; long - term, limited upside due to policy grain sources. The overall price is expected to be stable, and policy guidance is key. [24] - Profit and Development Direction of the Processing Industry: The processing profit of the corn deep - processing industry has been poor this year, with starch processing at a near - break - even point and alcohol in continuous loss. The future development direction is to vertically expand the industrial chain, especially focusing on amino - acid products. [25] - Inventory - Building Plan and Rhythm: Short - term, passive inventory building; medium - term, increase inventory building when the price approaches the planting cost. Traders are more positive, while enterprises are more cautious and focus on the impact of storage policies. [26] - Actual Use of Futures: The corn basis - point pricing model is widely used but needs improvement. Corn delivery warehouses are more proficient in using futures tools, and large enterprises are exploring hedging services. Currently, the corn futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and participation will resume when the market provides an opportunity. [27] Research Thinking - Macro - Level: Focus on policy - regulation directions and intensities, such as policy storage, policy - grain auctions, and import policies. [29] - Industry - Level: Consider the transmission of industrial profits, inventory cycles (passive inventory building), and expectations, behaviors, and results. [29] - Supply - Demand Rhythm: Pay attention to the rhythm of grain selling, inventory building, port collection, and futures - spot trading. [30]