西南期货早间评论-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market, and a certain degree of caution should be maintained [6]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and existing long positions can be held. However, recent market fluctuations have increased, and risk control is required [8]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and previous long positions can be held [10]. - The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high positions during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short - term but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to pull back in the short - term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term. After a decline, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [18]. - For crude oil, there are both bearish factors from funds and bullish factors from geopolitical risks. The main contract can focus on long - position opportunities [19][21]. - The supply of fuel oil in Asia has eased, and the price is supported. The main contract can be used to narrow the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. There is cost support below, but weak demand and high inventory may suppress the price rebound space [26]. - For natural rubber, control positions mainly due to approaching holidays [29]. - PVC continues to have an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [31]. - Urea may fluctuate in the short - term with support below [33]. - Short - term PX supply and demand maintain a tight balance, and it may fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policies [35]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate. There is improvement in processing fees, but the demand improvement is limited [37]. - Near - term ethylene glycol may be under pressure, and interval participation is recommended. Attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following costs. Attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost end [41]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to return to the logic of supply - demand surplus in the short - term, and the price may be weak. Attention should be paid to the conclusion of the Jiangxi mining license event [42]. - Copper prices maintain a high level, but there is a possibility of correction. The main contract of Shanghai copper can be temporarily observed [45]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [49]. - After adjustment, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities for call options in the support range of soybean meal. Soybean oil can be temporarily observed [50]. - Palm oil can be temporarily observed [52]. - Rapeseed oil can be considered for a long - position idea during pullbacks [54]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [57]. - Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [61]. - Apple prices are expected to have a higher opening price for late - maturing apples this year compared to last year. Observe before the holiday [64]. - For live pigs, consider short - selling at high levels in the near - term and anti - arbitrage strategies [66]. - For eggs, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [69]. - Corn can be observed, and corn starch may follow the corn market [71]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on a single day [5]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested maintaining loose monetary policy. From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and in August, the profit growth rate turned positive [6]. - It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - like market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need to prevent "involution - type" competition [8]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The market sentiment has warmed up, and it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed up. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, providing upward momentum for gold [10]. - It is expected that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals will continue, and previous long positions can be held [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures pulled back slightly. In the medium - term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the inventory pressure has increased [12]. - The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high positions during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The demand still supports the price, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium - term. The futures may continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14]. - Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Last trading day, coke and coking coal futures pulled back significantly. Before the holiday, the coking market is in a replenishment cycle, but the upward space for coal prices may be limited [15]. - The futures may continue to pull back in the short - term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed down. The supply of ferroalloys is still in an oversupply situation in the short - term, and the high inventory puts pressure on the market [17]. - After a decline, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [18]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly but was blocked by the 60 - day moving average. CFTC data shows that fund managers hold net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US has increased, and OPEC + has achieved about 75% of its additional oil production target [19]. - There are both bearish factors from funds and bullish factors from geopolitical risks. The main contract can focus on long - position opportunities [19][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil continued to rise. The inventory of fuel oil in Japan and Singapore has decreased, and Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on Russia has led to a strong price trend [23]. - The main contract can be used to narrow the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. It is expected to fluctuate this week. There is cost support below, but weak demand and high inventory may suppress the price rebound space [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply disturbance has slowed down, and it is necessary to control positions mainly due to approaching holidays [29]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. Before the National Day holiday, factories have great pressure to reduce prices to attract orders. In the medium - term, there is support below [33]. - It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term with support below [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term supply - demand maintains a tight balance, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. The cost end has support for a rebound, but increased supply slightly suppresses the market [35]. - It may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policies [36]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures closed down. The short - term processing fees have improved, but the demand improvement is limited. It may fluctuate in the short - term [37]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The near - term supply is reduced, but the demand improvement is limited. It may be under pressure and can be participated in within an interval [38]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures closed down slightly. The short - term supply remains at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved month - on - month. It may fluctuate following costs [40]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded slightly, and the load has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate following the cost end [41]. Carbonate Lithium - Last trading day, carbonate lithium futures closed down. The market's expectation of a shortage of ore may reverse, and it is expected to return to the logic of supply - demand surplus in the short - term, with a weak price trend [42]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose first and then fell. Copper prices maintain a high level, but there is a possibility of correction. The main contract can be temporarily observed [45]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, but the overall supply of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures closed down. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills remains at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has decreased slightly [50]. - After adjustment, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities for call options in the support range of soybean meal. Soybean oil can be temporarily observed [51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume from September 1st to 25th increased compared to the previous month. China's palm oil imports in August increased by 82.7% month - on - month [52]. - It can be temporarily observed [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell back. The EU's rapeseed production forecast was raised, and Canada's rapeseed export volume increased. China's rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil inventories are at relatively high levels [54]. - Rapeseed oil can be considered for a long - position idea during pullbacks [56]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures fell sharply and then rebounded. The US cotton growth and inventory data were released, and China's cotton planting area and output are expected to increase [57]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [59]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose first and then fell. Brazil's sugar production increased in the second half of August, and India's sugar production forecast remained unchanged. China's sugar imports increased from January to August [61]. - It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose first and then fell. The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the output of the 2025 - 2026 production season is expected to increase slightly [64]. - The opening price of late - maturing apples this year is expected to be higher than last year. Observe before the holiday [64]. Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs fell. The market is in a state of increasing supply and demand before the double festivals. The supply pressure is prominent, and the price may fluctuate slightly [66]. - Consider short - selling at high levels in the near - term and anti - arbitrage strategies [68]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas remained unchanged, and that in the main sales areas fell. The inventory of laying hens is at a relatively high level, and the supply is expected to increase in October [69]. - Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [70]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The inventory of northern ports decreased, and the inventory of southern ports returned to a relatively low level. The demand for corn maintains a slight growth trend [71]. - Corn can be observed, and corn starch may follow the corn market [73].