国投期货贵金属日报-20250929

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but with limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Precious metals continue to be strong and reach new highs. The market maintains the expectation of consecutive interest rate cuts this year, but there are differences among Fed officials on the prospects of interest rate cuts, which need to be verified by subsequent employment and inflation data [1]. - If the US Congress fails to reach a consensus on fiscal appropriation, some government agencies may shut down, and relevant economic reports may be postponed. The government shutdown from 2018 - 2019 led to a rise in gold prices [1]. - In the medium - term, factors such as the weakening of the US economy, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuation of geopolitical risks support the upward movement of the gold price center, and silver aims for the 2011 high. However, there is significant market volatility risk during the National Day holiday, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1]. - This week, key US data such as non - farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI should be closely monitored [1]. 3) Summary by Related Information - US Economic Data - In August, the US PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point higher than in July. The core PCE price increased by 2.9% year - on - year, the same as in July, meeting market expectations [2]. - The US Q2 GDP was revised upwards to a 3.8% increase, a two - year high, compared with the previous value of 3.3% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 was 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025 [2]. - Political Events - Four top US congressional leaders will meet with President Trump at the White House on Monday. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement on the short - term spending bill, federal funds will run out on Tuesday [2]. - Fed Officials' Statements - Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates [2]. - Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only Treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [2].