尿素周报：秋季肥支撑有限，关注印标动态-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend this week. With the expected resumption of production of overhauled devices of multiple urea enterprises in late September, the daily urea production is expected to return to a high - level in late September. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer production nears its end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually declined, and the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level year - on - year. In the short term, due to the increase in supply pressure and weak demand, the urea inventory has been continuously accumulating. With uncertainties in Indian tenders and export expectations, the futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders, macro - impacts, and export changes. For the UR2601 contract, pay attention to the support level performance around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Summary - Supply: The daily urea production has significantly rebounded, with the weekly urea output at 1401500 tons (+5.38%), including 1108600 tons of coal - based urea and 292900 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily output of 200000 tons. Multiple enterprises are scheduled for maintenance in October [4][19][23]. - Demand: The support from autumn fertilizer is limited. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 35.27% (-3.36%), and the finished product inventory is 791700 tons (a decrease of 8100 tons compared to the previous period). The operating rate of melamine is 60.58% (+3.80%). Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders [4][32]. - Inventory: Upstream urea enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The factory inventory is 1218200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52900 tons. The port inventory is 496300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 19700 tons). The mainstream pre - sale days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.53 days) [4][25][29]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices continue to be strong, and urea profits have decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - Basis and Spread: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Domestic Urea Market Price: The domestic urea market price showed a weak trend this week [6]. - International Urea Market Price: The international urea market price has been adjusted downward [10]. - Production and Maintenance: The weekly urea output has increased, and multiple enterprises have planned maintenance in October [19][23]. - Raw Material End: Coal prices continue to be strong [34]. - Urea - Related Product Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [43].