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长飞光纤(601869):光纤全球龙头,AI驱动新成长周期
HTSC·2025-09-29 11:21

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a rating of "Buy" and sets a target price of RMB 115.52 / HKD 64.12, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 54x / 27x [1][5][7]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the optical fiber preform, fiber, and cable industry, maintaining the largest market share since 2016. The report anticipates a new growth cycle driven by the rapid development of AI computing infrastructure, with high demand for hollow-core fibers, multimode fibers, and ultra-low loss single-mode fibers [1][3][20]. - The optical fiber and cable industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, heavy manufacturing, and broad applications, with domestic manufacturers leading globally. The report expects a new growth cycle in the optical fiber industry, particularly in data communication driven by AI applications [2][16][18]. Company Analysis - The company occupies a dominant position in the global optical fiber preform, fiber, and cable industry. It is transitioning from a manufacturing-focused entity to a platform-based company, expanding both vertically and horizontally within the optical communication industry [3][20]. - The company has established eight overseas production bases, with overseas revenue accounting for 33.7% in 2024, indicating a strong international presence [3][18][20]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights a high demand for optical fibers in data centers, with a projected CAGR of 76.0% for AI application-related fiber demand from 2020 to 2029. The hollow-core fiber technology is expected to have significant development potential in various applications [2][17]. - The telecommunications sector in China is experiencing a slowdown in demand, while overseas 5G fixed network construction is expected to boost optical fiber exports [2][17]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 8.65 billion, RMB 16.21 billion, and RMB 23.92 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.96%, 87.48%, and 47.51% [5][10]. - The report uses a 2026 valuation framework, assigning a PE of 54x for A-shares and 27x for H-shares, reflecting the company's leading position in the optical fiber industry and its deep engagement in new fiber technologies [5][10].