银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250929

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3352, down 2 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3395, up 8; JD09 closed at 3803, up 7 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at -43, down 10; 05 - 09 spread closed at -408, up 1; 09 - 01 spread closed at 451, up 9 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.14, unchanged [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.46 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin; main selling area average price was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - Dalian egg price was 3.33 yuan/jin, unchanged; Dezhou was 3.55 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Handan egg price was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; Xiaogan was 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin [3] Profit and Cost - Today's profit per bird was 21.99 yuan, down 1.28 yuan from yesterday [3] - Corn average price was 2370 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; soybean meal average price was 2998 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - August national laying hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 90 million from the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [7] - August egg chick monthly emergence volume was 39.81 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [7] - September 26 week's national main producing area egg hen culling volume was 18.22 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week [7] - As of September 26 week, national representative selling area egg sales volume was 7148 tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous week [8] - As of September 26 week, production link weekly average inventory was 1.13 days, an increase of 0.19 days; circulation link weekly average inventory was 1.23 days, an increase of 0.17 days [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Overall supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low cost, and weak demand have led egg prices to fall to the lowest level in recent years [10] - Short-term egg price rebound is mainly due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday stocking. With the end of holiday stocking, egg prices have begun to decline [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions should be held as the spot price has recently declined, but there is expected to be some support near the previous low [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]