银河期货白糖日报-20250929

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report (September 29, 2025) [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Globally, the production increase in major sugar - producing regions is being realized. Brazil is at its supply peak, with a large increase in sugar production recently. However, the ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil has reached around 16 cents per pound, and the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio is expected to decline, alleviating the pressure of a large increase in sugar production. India's sugar production is also expected to increase significantly this year, and its policies on sugar - to - ethanol and exports are crucial. Thailand and China are also likely to see an increase in sugar production [9]. - In the domestic market, China's sugar imports remained high in August. Domestic sugar inventories are low, and the sales - to - production ratio is high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Considering that both foreign and domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are at a low level and domestic sugar inventories are low, the downward resistance of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to increase [9]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short at high prices both for international and domestic sugar, but the downward space is expected to be limited. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,437, down 15 (- 0.28%), with a trading volume of 1,023 (down 1,554) and an open interest of 4,218 (up 461); SR01 closed at 5,479, up 1 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 143,897 (down 9,408) and an open interest of 417,045 (down 10,429); SR05 closed at 5,437, down 5 (- 0.09%), with a trading volume of 11,392 (down 2,596) and an open interest of 67,055 (up 995) [5]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,890, 5,905, 6,080, 5,780, 6,015, 5,900, and 6,270 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 411, 426, 601, 301, 536, 421, and 791 [5]. - Monthly Spread: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 42 (down 6), SR09 - SR5 spread was 0 (down 10), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 42 (down 16) [5]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.35, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 43.00, the in - quota price was 4,495, the out - of - quota price was 5,726, the spread with Liuzhou was 164, the spread with Rizhao was 174, and the spread with the futures market was - 247. For Thai imports, with an ICE主力 of 16.35, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4,453, the out - of - quota price was 5,671, the spread with Liuzhou was 219, the spread with Rizhao was 229, and the spread with the futures market was - 192 [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: In August 2025, Russia's beet molasses production reached 170,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. Brazil's Minas Gerais state will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, and the total output will decline. As of mid - September, 58.2 million tons of sugarcane had been crushed, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output, a decrease of about 4.5% compared with the 2024/25 season. Sugar production was 4.2 million tons, and ethanol production was 1.96 million cubic meters. It is expected that 70% of the processing capacity will stop operating before mid - November. In 2025, floods in Pakistan severely damaged the agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million mu of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber - Pakhtunkhwa [7][8]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, the production increase in major sugar - producing regions is being realized. Domestically, the market is affected by foreign sugar trends, and the downward resistance of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to increase [9]. - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, short at high prices with limited downward space; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [10][11][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, showing information such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, production - sales ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, spot price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, basis for different contract months, and spreads between different contract months [12][16][19][21][24][26]