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御风系列:景气新周期起点,重视下半年三大边际催化
Changjiang Securities·2025-09-29 11:33

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is entering a new cycle of prosperity, with significant growth expected in both offshore and onshore wind projects, driven by domestic and international factors [10][12] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a comprehensive release of performance, with three major catalysts identified: the initiation of deep-sea offshore wind projects, accelerated exports, and recovery in wind turbine profitability [19][102] Summary by Sections Medium to Long Term: New Cycle of Prosperity - Domestic wind power economics are significantly improving, with a positive trend in installed capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12] - The report highlights that overseas offshore wind power has vast potential, with countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific setting ambitious installation targets for 2030 [16][17] Short Term: Performance Release in H2 2025 - The report forecasts that wind power installations in 2025 could reach 110 GW, with onshore installations expected to hit 100 GW and offshore installations potentially doubling to 10 GW [22] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of accelerated prosperity, supported by the seasonal increase in project initiations [23] Catalysts for Growth - Catalyst 1: Acceleration of deep-sea offshore projects, with significant capacity planned across various provinces, totaling approximately 128.3 GW [28][32] - Catalyst 2: A turning point in offshore wind installations is expected in 2026, with domestic companies actively pursuing international orders [60] - Catalyst 3: Recovery in profitability for wind turbines is anticipated, driven by stable pricing and reduced competition [67][93]