银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250929

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Institute: Commodity Research Institute [1] - Researcher: Wang Luchen CFA [2] - Contact Information: Shanghai: 021 - 65789219; Beijing: 010 - 68569781; Email: wangluchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Review Precious Metals Market - London Gold: Reached a new high of $3,819.81, currently trading around $3,808 [3] - London Silver: Reached a new high of $47.174 since 2011, currently trading around $46.88 [3] - Shanghai Gold: Reached a new high of 867 yuan, closing up 1.35% at 866.52 yuan/gram [3] - Shanghai Silver: Reached a new high of 11,008 yuan, closing up 3.92% at 10,939 yuan/kilogram [3] Other Markets - Dollar Index: Slightly lower, currently trading around 98 [4] - 10 - year US Treasury Yield: Declined, currently trading around 4.145% [5] - RMB Exchange Rate: Opened and closed higher against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.12 [6] Group 3: Important Information US Macroeconomic Data - August Core PCE Price Index: Annual rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations; monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations [7] - August Personal Spending: Monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.5% [7] - September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Final value was 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4 [7] - September One - year Inflation Rate Expectation: Final value was 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.8% [7] Trump Administration Movements - Federal Government Funding: Congress has not reached a consensus on fiscal appropriation. If no agreement is reached by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [7] - Trump's Statements: On the 27th, Trump said if the government has to shut down, then let it shut down. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [7] Federal Reserve Views - Richmond Fed President Barkin: Upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates [8] - Fed Governor Bowman: Strongly supports the Fed only holding Treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [10] FedWatch - October: The probability of maintaining interest rates is 10.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.3% [10] - December: The probability of maintaining interest rates is 2.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 32.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 64.9% [10] Geopolitical Conflicts - Trump on Ukraine: On the 27th, according to the Wall Street Journal, Trump is open to relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of US - made long - range weapons to strike targets in Russia, but no specific actions were promised [10] Group 4: Logical Analysis - The US PCE data on Friday night was in line with market expectations, reducing the obstacles for another rate cut in October, leading to a decline in the dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield [11] - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect the release of subsequent non - farm and CPI reports and increase market uncertainty [11] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the potential escalation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, have pushed up market risk - aversion sentiment [11] - Multiple factors suggest that precious metals are expected to continue their strong performance. However, with the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices to lock in profits [11] Group 5: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - Before the holiday, take profits at high prices and hold light positions during the holiday [12] Arbitrage - Wait and see [13] Options - Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options to retain the possibility of profit during the holiday [13] Group 6: Data Reference Dollar Index and Precious Metals Trends - Charts show the historical trends of the dollar index against London Gold and London Silver [15][17] Real Yield and Precious Metals Trends - Charts show the historical trends of real yields against London Gold and London Silver [19][22] Domestic and Foreign Futures Trends - Charts show the historical trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [26] Futures and Spot Trends - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures and spot prices [28][29] Domestic - Foreign Price Differences - Charts show the historical trends of domestic gold and silver futures premiums [32][34] Gold - Silver Ratio - Charts show the historical trends of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex gold - silver ratios [41][43] ETF Holdings - Charts show the historical trends of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF holdings [45][46] Futures Open Interest - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver futures open interest [48][49] Futures Inventories - Charts show the historical trends of Shanghai gold and silver futures inventories [50][51] Trading Volume - Charts show the historical trends of Shanghai gold and silver futures trading volume [52][53] TD Data - Charts show the historical trends of gold and silver TD deferred fees and delivery volumes [55][58][61] Treasury Yield and Breakeven Inflation Rate - Charts show the historical trends of nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, real interest rates, and US Treasury yields [59]